It is uber-bothersome that the govt would think it even fathomly fair to weigh an award to favor a unionize group. Sickens me. Leave it up to a trickle down entitlement party to try to force us into paying a lazy union. it f it were a union the work would take 3x as long and go well over budget.

But if MWAA has had a good experience with the Agreement does it not make business sense to continue it for the second phase? It's really one project with two funding mechanism. If the project is on time and safe, why would we not want to continue this? It sounds like they made a good business decision. If they would change direction in the middle of the project and phase 2 goes over budget, will we all they be saying WH stupid MWAA was for not keeping the labor agreement? I say the owner of the project can make the rules. It sounds like they made a good business decision for the project but politicians don't like it. Do we really care what the politicians want? I don't.

It costs more and perhaps some bidding companies do not want to adopt a crippling labor group. Also, some workers do not and would not join unions. So, essentially, it is not fair. Why favor the minority?

Almost every Virginia construction worker is NOT in a union. The PLA preference gives advantage to those companies using union labor. Virginia construction workers have built amazing structures without mandatory PLAs since the beginning of time - look at the Pentagon, all the BRAC work, hospitals, universities, the airports themselves ... we are a qualified, talented bunch that deserve an equal chance to work on this project that our tax dollars are paying for. And yes it does cost more when you constrict the majority of a local workforce in the bidding process.

When the rail is done traffic will be less. How could it not? If you have a reason as to how there would not be less cars on the DTR upon completion, I would love to hear it.

So what is the reason for the doubling of projected costs?

Incompetence and corruption, I think.

Other People's Money = Moral Hazard

When did York say that? No, he doesn't have the votes. There are FOUR votes for metro on the board. York needs five. Judging by his temper tantrum last night, he doesn't have that 5th vote.

Bob, I get that you feel strongly about this, so what do you recommend we do? Should we be voicing grievances with Fairfax County? The Commonwealth?

People should study the issue, and make comments and complaints to the associated government agencies, and their supervisory agencies, and in public for others to see.

I suggest that everyone write the board of supervisors with their objections to this awful project that will increase tolls, increases our taxes, and increase our traffic! It's a lose-lose-lose for everyone in Loudoun. Please write bos@loudoun.gov and tell them to stop the insanity and OPT OUT!

Janie is right. But you need large numbers of people who know the facts, writing to the BOS of Loudoun County, and some showing up and speaking from knowledge on the subject. Right now we are seeing a quasi-disinformation campaign - people will go and scream about the PLA, only to be shot down by "Oh, well the PLA was removed, didn't you know that?" And unless they know that the PLA was replaced by a 10% union preference, they will be silenced and made to look stupid. But you see the PLA mentioned again and again in the news, don't you. Hmmmm, ya think that might be deliberate muddying of the water? Nooooooo, couldn't be.

Then our leaders will say, "Oh look! We jettisoned the union preference, saving 10%, that's about $280 million! Never mind the other $1.4 billion overcost behind the curtain there, we tricked you into agreeing that the problem was the PLA and the tolls! If the tolls are too much, we'll just float a multi-billion dollar bond, and charge this mess to you, and your children and grandchildren. Don't worry, be happy! We sure are! And so are the people who will be overpaid by $1.4 billion! Ya think? And gee, MWAA has compromised, so you should too, so they don't start crying or something. That wouldn't be fair."

Maybe if a few hundred people spoke up, and knew what they were talking about, our leaders might pay more attention.

Now here come the pen-name posters, to remind you to pay an extra $1.4 billion because they say it is the right thing to do.

Assuming that people remain ignorant, and do not notice the initial results of an earlier US DOT audit of Dulles Rail Phase II, that should be released on May 15, 2012, it may be that our leaders will be able to get approval for Phase II in July 2012. (This audit was announced in 2011 and was reported in the news media - unlike the more recent audit begun in March 2012.)

If the People get animated about the results of the audit in May, Dulles Rail Phase II may be postponed and replanned. But if that doesn't happen, then the question will be whether it will be necessary to 'pay down' the tolls BEFORE approval can be obtained, or if this can be delayed until some time AFTER the approval.

If approval is not obtained simply by jettisoning the union preference, then the tolls will be "paid down" with $300 million to $1 Billion of tax money - which will be hidden by long term bonding. But whether this is done before or after the approval of Dulles Rail Phase II, it WILL be done at some point - because screams about tolls and traffic diversion problems will become too loud to ignore.

(continued)

And then you, your children and your grandchildren will pay principal and interest on 1.9 of what the cost SHOULD have been - plus whatever cost increases can be foisted on us - for generations. The extra 90%, plus increases, will go to various contractors and agencies, and loop partially back to certain support players somehow.

Dan. Have you every worked for a union...on a union job? Well, neither have I but my entire family has. In movies, construction and government. In each case a large group of the work force was lazy and over paid. Controlling cost is done no better by a company that adopts a union. They all use the same SW and earned value strategies.
Your claim that most projects with PLA are done for less is so rediculous you may as well just say that president Obama is a good leader and gives dredit to all those around him.
Unions are bad and they do ruine work ethic, waste money and keep real earned wages out of the hands of the hardest workers.

Dan someone is giving you bad information. It's really simple economics that when you constrict competition the price goes up. There are studies that show PLA jobs increase the cost is greater than 10% and none of that is wage or benefit related. And aside from the money, we shouldn't allow some interstate agency to kick Virginia workers to the curb. Both union and nonunion should be able to build this thing together as they did in Phase 1. Enough of the games. Drop the PLA.

What are your calculations to suggest that this rail project will never pay for itself? There are myriad ways that this project will bring value to the Dulles corridor. I'd like to see the values that you've place on them.

I would point to the rest of the WMATA Metro system, Richard. It has a maintenance backlog estimated anywhere from 6 to 13 billion dollars. I would say that if Metrorail was doing such a great job bolstering the economy, then the region should be able to sustain it.

Also check the money in, money out graphs here.
https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B64IfZTFiYIAMUNwMTZYX19qOW8/edit?pli=1

There is one economist who says that the Silver Line is a good economic thing. But check this:
http://ashburn.patch.com/articles/lte-who-is-stephen-fuller-working-for

It sure doesn't look like a moneymaker to me.

I think that's pretty much how all the taxpayers in Loudoun feel. We're the richest county in the nation, with very low unemployment, why would we need this over priced mess?! Just to raise our taxes? No thanks!

Barbara, what I want to know is why - with the economy low, and with contractors looking for work and deals, as you say - why is it, that we are handed prices that are TWO TIMES what they should be? (OK, the parking garage costs are 'only' 1.76 times what they should be. Whoopee. Something else must be well over two times normal price, because the overall cost is 100% high.)

Why is it that the average cost for a parking garage in the USA is $15,000 to $15,600 per space, and nearby Herndon, Virginia says it can can build a parking garage for $15,000 a space - but yet, in these times, MWAA and FTA say that Dulles Rail Phase II parking garages cost $26,394 per space?

Why is it that Fairfield, Connecticut could build a Metro station in 2011 for $39.1 million, and $4.6 million for associated road work -, but yet, in these times, MWAA and FTA say that the comparable Dulles Rail Phase II Rt 28 Metro station costs $83 million?

Why is it that the cost per mile of the Franconia-Springfield Metro extension was $116 to $133 million (depending on the inflation factor) in 2012 dollars - but yet, in these times, MWAA and FTA say that Dulles Rail Phase II costs $233 to $267 million per mile (depending on MWAA-FTA financial chicanery)?

And - while there are enough of them already, Herndon's amenities did not cost in the billions of dollars. They did not require generations of struggle to pay off. And they were not added at a time when federal spending was about to drop like a rock in the region.

Bob, you are totally stuck in Metro mode. Barbara cited many projects WITHIN THE TOWN. Some of these were completed during recessions, in order to take advantage of lower-cost construction. A small Town really can make decisions much faster than a regional rail system.

And Mary has good comments.

Don't u get it? Rail was "imminent" when USGS HQ consolidated in Virginia 1969-71.
Regarding the whole repeated-repeated-repeated complaints of "doubling the cost" -- IF there had not been some saying "costs too much" for F-O-R-T-Y years we might have already had this Metro line.
One real problem was that for years we had a Hunter Mill Supervisor who was an absolute "rubber tire man" and Cong. Wolf too - - they never implemented their perceived wonderful bus wheel system, yet de-railed rail. So here we are with costs that have gone up incrementally over 4 darn decades.
Shall we add another decade or arguing and dawdling?

BTW, in the fist place, the rail line to Dulles should have been paid for long ago by the FEDS -- tit's a line to a federal facility. But there are also always those who don't WANT federally-funded anything.
READ DAN's post again.
I agree.

Ms Csonka,

According to Wikipedia, the Herndon-Monroe Park and Ride has been in existense since 1999. I am guessing that the express bus service to West Falls Church has been here approximately that long also. I have commuted on this bus line multiple times and can tell you that it works and works well during peak hours (not so well during non-peak). Mass transit is not coming; it is here. And it has been here a good long while.

Would you please share with us how heavy rail is going to be better, faster and cheaper since the rail is essentially going to mimic the service we now have? From all indications, the level of service will be substantially slower and much more expensive than what we have.

Ann, Dulles Rail Phase II isn't about Herndon's past projects.

Some things in Dulles Rail were planned reasonably well - the basic right of way, for example, although somebody sure dropped the ball in Tysons Corner. But forty years of planning clearly isn't enough, because the plan at the airport was bungled on top of bungled, the financing is bogus, and the cost is two times what it should be. Yes, I know, you don't care what price we pay.

And all I hear are impatient complaints, when the whole job is already being done probably thirty years prematurely, and people have the gall to pretend that this is all about getting a lower cost. News Flash: double cost is not lower cost. And it's MWAA's bungling misanagement of this project, and somebody's bad pricing (that gee, even the FTA somehow didn't happen to notice), that is causing that price to skyrocket - not some mysterious localized hyperinflation phenomenon. Sorry if you are tired of hearing it, but I'm not interested in paying twice, plus interest on more than half, thank you. And other people are starting to catch on. Rail at any price? No thanks, this is the REAL world.

Also Ann, Dan said nothing of consequence. The union labor issue isn't the big cost issue. And I wouldn't care if people had been fumbling with this thing for a century, there is no reason that a Phase II rail station should cost two times as much as a comparable Metro station in Fairfield Conncticut, there is no reason why the cost per mile is bloated, even compared to the inflation-corrected costs of a comparable job from 15 years ago, and there is no reason why the parking garage estimates are high by 76%. That has nothing to do with 40 years of planning, Ann. Absolutely nothing. How could you think that it did? Tell me, how did forty years of planning result in bloated estimates now? Did the planners from 1975 bill Phase II or something? Come on, now.

As for the economic engine, this mess will drive traffic off of the Toll Road - just wait until you see what that does to traffic around here. Then, when a Billion dollar plus bond is floated to fix that - probably by Fairfax County - our bond rating will drop like a rock, much like our income from federal money that is just about history now. There will be one little rail line moving people back and forth on one thin little line, and some very rich and happy contractors. Traffic is not expected to be affected at all, but costs will rise, and rise, and rise. The engine, if anything, will stall. Wake up.

We should absolutely move forward with the project and long term is the key. But to block the very people who are paying tolls and taxes to finance the project from bidding on it is simply not acceptable. Build Rail to Loudoun and let all qualified contractors bid on the job. To discriminate against 97.4% of our state's hard working, talented construction workers who happen to work for nonunion firms is just unacceptable. We can fix the discrimination, save money and get rail built. Hopefully MWAA stops playing games and we get this done.

I don't know anybody who willingly chooses a phone service that costs two times the normal going price. And I don't know anyone who says "Oh, I better take this phone deal, even though it's horribly high priced, or the price will just go higher!" The people I know will look for a better deal. But then, I don't know anyone on MWAA's board, or at FTA.

What we have here are way too many pen-name posters claiming to be in a panic, and telling us to hurry, hurry, rush, rush, and sell our children and grandchildren into huge debt - MUCH bigger than it needs to be - because supposedly the prices will only keep skyrocketing.

Does anybody remember the stock market right around 1999 to 2000? If not, maybe you remember the housing market around 2006 and 2007? No, Virginia, the prices will NOT keep skyrocketing.

People should wise up. These prices are skyrocketing because there is no pushback from our government or its associated agencies. Tell them to wake up and push back!

" Pla has nothing to do with the cost of this project"
MWAA has said there is a 10% bonus for adopting a PLA. That means a winning bidder can charge more than the next lowest bidder and still get the contract if the former agrees to a PLA. Higher prices for building rail means higher tolls, which, in turn, means more drivers abandoning the Dulles Toll Road for local streets. Traffic in McLean will get worse.

I support the effort to get more money for rail, but local officials are playing CYA. The financing plan for Phase I included the prospect for excessively high tolls from Day 1. They knew this to be true when they lobbied the Federal Transit Administration to approve the Full Funding Agreement. Why didn't they demand more money from Richmond (Governor Kaine) back then? The truth is: Many elected officials wanted rail at any cost. And now that the cost is very high, they are playing CYA. The hypocrisy is overwhelming.

Barbara - more and more busses use compressed natural gas. It's cheap now. Later they will probably go electric.

Long term... how long term? Ultimately, rail MAY make sense - if technology has not left it behind by then. But in any forseeable future, our population density just isn't high enough. That's why Dulles Rail Phase II does not qualify for Tifia. Maybe this extension should wait until it does.

In my opinion, the long term plan should be bus now, rail later - at such time as rail makes sense. This premature rail is so expensive that the financial arrangements are bursting at the seams. Right now it will certainly benefit certain landowners, but it will not benefit The People.

Our efforts now should be to push back on the double pricetag on Phase II. And you should warn Herndon's Council that the advertised $26,394 per space cost of the Phase II garages will inflate the planned $15,000 per space cost in Herndon's Downtown Development plan, effectively destroying it. Even if we decide to proceed with this premature rail extension, nothing should happen until its cost is cut in half - not by Enron-quality financial tricks like the FTA game of dumping huge costs onto the counties, but by forcing the costs down to the going rates. The costs that FTA revealed in 2011, are 76% to 100% higher than they should be. The other costs remain hidden, except for the overall price, which is two times what it should be - so I think we know we have a BIG price problem here.

And also, Barbara - yes, cost figures expressed in earlier dollars are USUALLY lower than cost figures expressed in later dollars. It's called inflation, and I allowed for inflation when comparing the per-mile cost to the 1997 Franconia-Springfield job. Dulles Rail Phase II came in at two times the cost per mile, and no justification for this exists.

And why should we believe that the Rt 28 station should cost two times what a comparable Metro station just cost, that was completed in December of 2011?

And parking garages - why is the FTA Phase II parking garage estimate $26,394 per space, when the Town of Hendon's Downtown Development parking garage estimate is $15,000 per space? The average cost in the USA is about $15,000 to $15,600 per space, and overcharges like $26,394 per space will skew the cost basis for the whole country, including Herndon. It could break Herndon's Downtown Development plan. Why should we allow that to happen?

Haven't we caught somebody with their hand in the cookie jar here? And shouldn't we get the Dulles Rail Phase II prices down to the going rates?

Barbara,
All of this talk about costing for the Metro Silver Line construction is beyond my poor capacity to understand. But the things I do understand are:
• People come and go from this Town mostly from areas other than where this heavy-rail track goes (particularly during non-peak.)
• Construction costs are just the tip of the iceberg if you expect this thing to run every seven minutes during peak and every twelve minutes during non-peak. (Metro doesn’t have enough money to make its day-to-day expenses now with it running often with standing room only, even on weekends)
• Riding Metro now can be a really unpleasant experience and I would have to wonder who would ride the Silver Line if presented with another option (especially during off-peak?)

As far as face-value is concerned, one should never overlook the obvious. I would be more than happy to offer to take you or anyone else to the commuter lots in Woodbridge and then have you commute from there to here on mass transit. It’s very doable. Do this for a week and then tell me how great an idea the Silver Line is as opposed to the idea of a well-planned bus system that could be easily replaced with better technology twenty years from now.