LTE: Reader Questions Logic of Rail to Loudoun
Infrastructure costs, unknown commitments and uncertain expectations are the the focus of his concerns.
Dear Editor,
As expected, proponents of the Dulles Rail project are relying on the most optimistic projections to support the need to add rail to our transit options, while opponents point to the enormous cost and the selective burden faced by Dulles Toll Road commuters to cover the financing. Beyond the political theater, it would be fair to say that there is enough uncertainty to apply the highest level of scrutiny to the proceedings.
Having examined some of the documents on the Loudoun County website, most notably the Dulles Rail traffic and revenue projections, and the updated Fiscal Impact Analysis, I must echo the findings by Terry Maynard of Reston Citizens Association Board of Directors/RCA Reston 2020 Committee, who in a recent letter to the Loudoun County Board of Supervisors and Gov. Bob McDonnell, states that “The key point is that Metrorail to Loudoun will bring major infrastructure investment and financing costs with it that will outweigh—probably by far—the economic benefits that may accrue to the county over the next several decades.”
[Editor’s note: The most recent county data also shows that fares on the Dulles Toll Road are likely to rise significantly without another source of funding, regardless of the stations in Loudoun.]
I have also come across various studies elsewhere (such as the Mineta Transportation Institute College of Business, San José State University) that address the success or failure of urban rail systems and the factors that make them successful. Using a rail system as a tool for development is not always successful, particularly when ridership projections are largely overestimated.
Then, through the kindness of Tony Howard, CEO of the Loudoun Chamber of Commerce, comes “Making the Case for Transit/WMATA Regional Benefits of Transit,” in part produced by Smart Growth America. Here, Metrorail is being presented as a revitalizing catalyst for economic growth, but looking at the density of the neighborhoods helped by Metrorail stations, specifically the New York Avenue station, there was clearly a significant level of population and business demand already in place, well inside the Beltway. Looking at the Shady Grove station, did building the Kentlands and King Farm developments reduce either Metrorail’s operating deficit or Montgomery County’s property tax rate?
Can Ashburn, all by itself, generate enough economic impact within a ½-mile radius of the proposed station to justify building a station? Compared to Vienna, Dunn Loring, or West Falls Church? Occasional shopping trips to Tyson’s won’t cut it. A successful urban rail system connects major destinations with each other, carrying all-day traffic in both directions, such as Tyson’s Corner and Bethesda. Or Gallery Place and Union Station.
Ashburn is a bedroom community, not a vibrant urban destination, at least not yet. So, let’s focus on infrastructure: According to the EPA, “The average American family of four uses roughly 400 gallons of water per day at home. Roughly 70 percent of this use occurs indoors.” So, if Dulles World Center, International City, Kincora, West Dulles Station and Moorefield Station are all built out, to the tune of thousands of households, along with Metro-stimulated growth in surrounding communities, how many miles of pipe have to be laid to pump water for daily use? How much water can Loudoun Water pump? From which source? How much wastewater will this development create and where does it go? Who pays to fix the pipes when they break? I see nothing in any of the project documents, so far, that addresses Metrorail impact on budgeting for maintenance of public infrastructure.
[Editor’s note: Loudoun Water, which conducts its own infrastructure planning, has a relatively new facility in Ashburn and is not a county entity. Users pay the Loudoun Water bills, not the county. Loudoun residents who are not on wells use Loudoun Water.]
Sure, proffers are nice, but once the neighborhood opens for business, it comes out of the county budget, right? What about schools, pensions, potholes and other commitments that the county taxpayers have to meet?
[Editor’s note: By most calculations, multifamily housing, the primary type that increases with Metro, has a lower impact on schools, the single highest cost to local government, than single-family houses or townhouses.]
If you tell me that the answer is continuously increasing bond debt, I think we are creating a Ponzi scheme by relying on future development to pay for what is proposed today. One day, the bottom falls out. Seriously. As Loudouners we must ask ourselves what are we putting in jeopardy to pay for Rail to Ashburn. Let’s find an alternative that solves the problem at lower cost with less uncertainty.
Now, before the Loudoun Board of Supervisors makes its July decision, it has the strongest bargaining position. Once the ink in on the paper, a 4.8% share in the construction cost does not inspire much confidence that once Phase 2 is launched Loudoun has much clout. It is not clear as to whether the terms are negotiable or “take it or leave it.” Are any of the terms modifiable? Can Loudoun require performance standards or limits to its financial exposure? There is apparently little recourse for Loudoun taxpayers if the actual revenue and economic development fail to meet expectations, and the price goes up. How do we hold MWAA/WMATA accountable? There may be a time to make a bold move and say that whatever happens, we’ll make it work somehow. Or perhaps, as I strongly suggest, the bolder move is to walk away from the seductive allure of the big game and tell MWAA to call back when the numbers make sense. Please Opt Out.
Robert M. Jones
North Fork
Blue Ridge District
Bob Bruhns
10:11 am on Thursday, April 26, 2012
I think that smart-growth planning is a better way to go than sprawl. That said, it is not smart for growth, or for regional well-being, to pay two times what an expensive infrastructure element like this should cost.
All evidence says that Dulles Rail Phase II costs two times what it should cost. As a result of this overcost, the financing of this rail extension is a big problem. Worse yet, the financing plans are proving to be defective, meaning that the double-price bloat in this project is causing it to tear apart at the seams. And the financial plan in Loudoun County has the additional twist that taxpayers very far from the rail stations are considered to benefit just as much as the landowners and businesses immediately surrounding the rail stations, because there is no rail-zone business tax district in Loudoun County - and that is simply unfair.
Denying and hiding the problems in this project is not smart at all. It is also not smart to accept this project as planned, out of terror that this project is immediately necessary for survival, and out of terror that rejecting this bad plan will result in no plan at all, ever.
It is time to awaken and rise to an adult level of understanding. This is a bad deal, and it needs to be re-planned and renegotiated. And this deal CAN be re-planned and renegotiated. The ones who run around waving their arms, screaming that this deal must be accepted because the sky is falling, etc, need to be seen for who and what they are.
CC Mojo
11:01 am on Thursday, April 26, 2012
I'm afraid I don't understand how the projections for growth and economic development translate into some sort of chicken little scenario. Those opposed seem to be doing a lot of screaming and pointing fingers, though.
40,000 new jobs, increased salaries, and steady growth overall for all of Loudoun... how is this a bad idea?
Daniel Davies
3:36 pm on Thursday, April 26, 2012
@CC Mojo
How is this a bad idea? Loudoun County's numbers show the Metro-to-Loudoun will cost taxpayers $1.2 billion between 2012-2040 if we don't Opt Out... that sounds like a bad idea to me. See the numbers here: https://docs.google.com/open?id=0B64IfZTFiYIAUXFkN1l5T3VBT0k
Loudoun County administrator Tim Hemstreet says “Nonetheless, RCLCO has not found any credible evidence to indicate that the extension of rail transit brings new development to an entire region.” and also “...In RCLCO’s view there are not research studies that clearly support the view that rail investments catalyzes economic activity that would not otherwise have happened in a region...”
Bob Bruhns
12:32 pm on Thursday, April 26, 2012
Well, if you don't believe the chicken little scenario, then maybe you will agree that we should stop this bad rail plan, re-plan it, and renegotiate it. Or maybe not - because people would run around screaming "OOHHH ,that would kill the deal, and we would NEVER get rail, OHHH or it would cost soooooo much more!" Etc. Of course, it would cost much LESS - but no matter.
What is certain in the plan we are being handed now, is that the cost will be two times what it should be, the interest will be several times what it should be, and these costs will be unfairly distributed, because the primary benefit will be within 1/2 mile of the stations - according to Loudoun County's own consultants. So how can you support a plan that lets the landowners and businesses right around the rail stations benefit obscenely, while charging areas so far from the rail stations that they will see little benefit at all?
Deb Coffee
6:50 pm on Thursday, April 26, 2012
People don't decide to not buy a house when there is some inflated rumor about that market crashing - if people want a house, they get a house. They don't sit around and debate over fear, either they back out or they jump. I'm jumping :)
CC Mojo
7:09 pm on Thursday, April 26, 2012
@Daniel - isn't that the same group that claims Metro is going to push all it's debt on to Loudoun? Oh, and that the boogeyman is going to pillage Loudoun via the Silver Line. Meh. How can rail not stimulate Loudoun?
@Bob - the costs to Loudoun are said to be less than 5%, and depending on the phase of the project, those costs are right at 2%. Loudoun has money for most of the costs, and the benefit won't just be around the rail stations - the benefit will be the entire region - the commute, the lower housing costs, the business development. That's county-wide, babydoll.
Daniel Davies
12:00 pm on Friday, April 27, 2012
@CC Mojo- The figures in my link are taken directly from official Loudoun County estimates. The sources are all there in the footnotes, or did you not read that far? Facts can be stubborn things sometimes.
"How can rail not stimulate Loudoun?" You sound like Obama- Loudoun taxpayers' money out the door is $1.2 billion over 24 years, again, using the County's own estimates. If you think Keynesian government spending brings sustained economic growth, you better hope all of history is wrong, because this would be a first. If the demand for increased development in Loudoun is present, the building will happen, with or without rail, it just may be in a different location in Loudoun.
The full Phase 2 project would only bring rail 1.9 miles past Dulles Airport property. And this is the key to Loudoun's future? Seriously?
Clint Monroe
7:11 pm on Thursday, April 26, 2012
Ow, we want the rail
Give up the rail now
Ow, we need the rail
We gotta have that rail
Bob Bruhns
7:47 am on Friday, April 27, 2012
CC - read pages 7-8 of RCLCO's report to Loudoun County:
http://www.loudoun.gov/DocumentCenter/Home/View/52195
"In general, however, the closer to transit a property is, the greater the value increase, and most of the value increases are likely to occur within a ½ mile walking distance of the station entrance.
Moreover, because of the increased property values and rents associated with proximity to transit, all else being equal properties in close proximity to Metro are more attractive to prospective developers than properties far away. As a result, they may experience faster and/or more intense development. Nonetheless, RCLCO has not found any credible evidence to indicate that the extension of rail transit brings new development to an entire region. This is in part because it is very difficult for any researcher to establish how a region would have developed with different infrastructure than what it has. As a result, RCLCO has assumed that if transit spurs faster or more intense development on one property then it must necessarily mean slower or less intense development on another in the region."
CC Mojo
8:03 am on Friday, April 27, 2012
"As a result, RCLCO has assumed that if transit spurs faster or more intense development on one property then it must necessarily mean slower or less intense development on another in the region."
That's one of my problems with this. It seems counterintuitive to say that growth will only happen in that small radius, because neither Loudoun, Northern Virginia or the Atlantic (or whatever) region is in an economic vacuum. Those properties next to the stations will likely get the initial growth, of course, but that doesn't mean that the rest of the county will sit around, twiddling it's respective thumbs.
Since NoVa helps support much of the commonwealth of VA, how can that small, metro-influenced radius not benefit the rest of Loudoun? Does the revenue go straight from the station to Richmond, bypassing the rest of Loudoun? If so, doesn't it seem more of an issue with the state government?
Bob Bruhns
1:35 pm on Friday, April 27, 2012
Well, one way the small radius areas might not give rightful benefit to the rest of the County, is for Loudoun County to fail to create an appropriate rail tax district or districts around the stations. And in fact, this is exactly how Loudoun County has failed its people - the subject of a business rail tax district came up two years ago, and then it was quietly and conveniently forgotten. And a few people (almost always with pen-names) have been online, advocating a mad rush forward, without such tax districts. I think I know what is going on.
By the way, I noticed that I linked to the April 2011 RCLCO report above - the text I quoted above can also be found on pages 12 and 13 of the most recent (April 2012) RCLCO report:
Report: http://www.loudoun.gov/DocumentCenter/Home/View/61055
Report Appendices: http://www.loudoun.gov/DocumentCenter/Home/View/61056
Rob Jones
12:25 pm on Sunday, April 29, 2012
CC: I invite you to check out what's happening in Reston if you have not already. The 1/2-mile radius means a different thing in our rural house-farm in eastern Loudoun, where a 15-minute drive by car is a raw survival skill.
Reston is already mixed-use walkable, especially in the original section that was build around certain ecological ideals. Was, that is...
From Reston Patch:
http://reston.patch.com/articles/simon-urges-density-and-developers-are-ready-to-oblige
"* Boston Properties, which currently has 2.5 million square feet of mixed-use space within a mile of Reston future Metro stops, is concentrating on 200 acres north of the Reston Parkway station. That station is the first of Phase 2 and is scheduled to open in 2016 or 2017.
"Our vision is to create a 'little sister' of Reston Town Center," he said. "We view it as a vibrant, mixed-use development with hotel, retail, residential and office. The current plans center around an elevated, urban plaza with underground parking."
So, if Boston Properties is building the little sister, what do we get? The country-fried cousin?
Make jobs in Ashburn or Leesburg.