Accountability is one of the keys to solving this problem, and MWAA doesn't have it now

FWIW, I know a guy who works for Macquerie in NYC. They are the investment group you are referring to. They underestimated the growth in Loudon and overpaid for the Greenway toll rights. Not sure who you would tax, since they are not making any money, plus, any sort of move would probably violate the contract they have.

Aren't the tolls coming from a debt of 75% of the Phase I costs (tempered by $900 million of federal dollars and something like $48 million Virginia dollars that gradually pays it down somewhat), PLUS 75% of the cost of Phase II (tempered by $150 million from Virginia that pays it down a bit for a few years)? People should stop pretending that Phase II makes no difference in the tolls. But Dulles Rail has been a parade of lies for the past ten years, so what can one expect?

Good question. I have read the operating permit and they could take it back because Phase 2 is late, or because of poor management. Problem is the Governor and others lack the political will to do it. Here is a laundry list of things MWAA ignored on P1 and will likely repeat on P2: https://docs.google.com/open?id=0B64IfZTFiYIAY1EyS01rRzN1R3M
Here are the pages from the operating permit that pertain: https://docs.google.com/open?id=0B64IfZTFiYIASE8zSlp1MExLVFk
If you want more info email Loudoun OptOut" <loudounoptout@gmail.com>
It really does not have to be this bad.

Scott, we (the royal "we", not you and I) had this discussion about 15 years ago. IIRC, a proposal to build bus only lanes (on the outside of the toll road, not the airport lanes), plus bus only depots/stations at the Airport, Herndon, Reston and Tysons could have been built for ONE TENTH THE COST of heavy rail. It was about $300M for Dulles to West Falls Church. I didn't know then and I still don't understand what the stigma to busses is, but it's water under the bridge now.

Yes, yes, and yes, you've got it right. A couple good reads: http://www.downsizinggovernment.org/transportation/urban-transit/

http://www.insideronline.org/summary.cfm?id=17925

You can't fit any more vehicles including buses onto the toll road - which is a parking lot much of the day. And as one who has tried...the back roads are already clogged. The bus from Dulles Airport (Dulles Flyer) to West Falls Church is a Rube Goldberg Third World style operation that costs $17 each way. Dulles Airports links with the rest of the region are an embarassment when compared to Newark, Frankfurt, London, Chicago, etc. Oh, by the way, that Dulles Hub and its jobs will find another place to go as long as the localities surrounding are perceived as obstructionist and anti-infrastructure. Exxon/Mobil is already pulling out of Fairfax and that operation is probably merely the first storm petrel if companies perceive the region will not have an adequate infrastructure to attract the creative class to run business and lead research along with the accompanying business.
.

The creative class needs to come up with a better solution than to pay two times what it should cost, and to mortgage the farm for fifty years to pay for that, just to install one little rail line to address this problem, when much more is needed. It isn't expected that this line will affect overall traffic congestion much, but it's sure going to lighten wallets all over the region.

By the way, it appears that Phase I was almost as badly overpriced as Phase II. But it wasn't until MWAA went hog-wild with the high cost plans in Phase II that FTA stepped in and leaked some of the line item costs, and that was the first time that such costs were not "redacted" (meaning hidden) by wide black lines in MWAA releases. So the financial nightmare we are about to face is due to MWAA-induced overcosts in Dulles Rail Phase I and Dulles Rail Phase II.

Future surprises will involve the expansion of the Rosslyn tunnel, and the $13 Billion of maintenance backlog and Capital needs of WMATA. The truth was downplayed in order to trick the People into approving this project, and the People were so unconcerned that a two to one overprice was cleverly slipped into the Silver Line job.

This is going to be one very expensive and painful wake-up call, folks. Next time, maybe you will pay attention.

What cost "over runs" ?

Does that make rail so important that we had no choice but to pay two times what the construction should have cost? Because that's what happened.

Gotta love those "inside sources"! The fact is, only a P1 $150 million due to the 2010 snowmeggeton delay has been mentioned. And a construction contract for P2 is still months away..

And btw, Bob B has only ID'd fairy tales disguised as factual cost numbers. We are awaiting his sharing the MWAA reply to his message to them telling them that P2 and probably P1 is overpriced 100%.

Who is "we" Mr. the-stix?

Sounds like you are discrediting Bob B before you get an answer. Why is that? Son't hold your breath waiting for an answer from MWAA, they answer to no one which is one good reason to terminate their role.

And $150 million for one snowstorm, that is about right on a job that is cost-plus- design- as- you- go with the MWAA factor added in.

And why wait, stix? You can ask MWAA yourself.

Really stix, why aren't you even curious about the cost of the Rt 28 rail station, and the five Phase II parking garages? This was a smoking gun at the earlier 76% to 100% overcost, and now MWAA has had the gall to jack these prices up ANOTHER 27%! And yet instead of even questioning that, you stoop to personal attacks on the messenger, and you pretend that these costs are perfectly normal.

It didn't take geniuses to bring us this huge ripoff. Dulles Rail has only followed the same pattern we have seen in the Big Dig, the ARC Tunnel, the World Trade Center replacement, etc - a low initial price promise, quickly broken with cost increases that just don't stop.

People used to talk about $600 hammers and such. Dulles Rail is just a more recent version of the same disease. People needed to rise up against this, but they wimped out. The results of that failure are just around the corner. Shame on the complicit news media that hid several key facts and never questioned a thing, shame on our so-called leaders who played right along, and shame on the pen name overcost apologists who are still shedding darkness on this issue.

Mr. Pig.. I question the creditability of anyone that claims as a fact that the Phase2 100% Preliminary Engineering Estimate is 100% overpriced, and that Phase 1 could have been done at half the price. I also question the credibility of anyone that buys into that frivolous claim, as well as your assertion (based on “inside sources”) that Phase 2 (which does not even have a construction contractor selected yet) already has a $400 million “uptick”.

Besides, with the RFQI released, the project is going forward.. there will be plenty of real-time issues to debate as time goes on, hopefully without rehash of the same old, same old.

Well THAT story sure changed, didn't it. Since 2007, the agreement is that any cost overrun from Phase I or Phase II will be paid by the funding partners of Dulles Rail (MWAA, Fairfax County and Loudoun County), in the following proportions:

MWAA (Dulles Toll Road tolls): 75%
Fairfax County: 16.1%
Loudoun County: 4.8%
MWAA (non-Dulles Toll Road funds): 4.1%

Of course this story will change some more, because the disaster that will ensue for miles around the Dulles Toll Road because of a flood of drivers taking side roads instead of paying usurious tolls, will force Fairfax and Loudoun Counties to cover the 75% MWAA Dulles Toll Road share (SURPRISE!!!) by floating Great Big Expensive Bonds, that will cost you, your children and your grandchildren another $50 million to $70 million a year, for fifty years or more. And of course, more unhappy surprises are also in store after that. (SURPISE!!!)

Mr. Bruhns.. please provide a specific reference for the allocation between funding partners of any future Phase 1 and 2 "overruns".

All I have seen is the combined development/construction cost Phase 1 and 2 will be shared, Fed; 16%, Va taxpayers; 26% and MWAA; 58% (includes DTR tolls and aviation)).. no mention of future "overruns".

Weren't you aware of this, stix? You really should pay more attention.

Wary eyes on Dulles rail project’s bottom line
Washington Post, October 1, 2011
http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/commuting/wary-eyes-on-dulles-rail-projects-bottom-line/2011/09/28/gIQA1bIPDL_story.html
"If [the first phase of Metrorail’s extension to Dulles] goes over budget, the partners — Fairfax and Loudoun counties and the Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority — will have to make up a portion of the difference on the $2.8 billion project."

Statement from Fairfax County on Dulles Corridor Metrorail Project Phase I Funding
http://www.fairfaxcounty.gov/news/2011/updates/statement-dulles-corridor-metrorail-project-funding.htm
Merni Fitzgerald, Director of Public Affairs, Fairfax County Government
Oct. 6, 2011

"At their June 18, 2007 meeting, the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors authorized a local funding agreement with the Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority (MWAA) and Loudoun County and also authorized expenditure of funds from the Dulles Corridor Phase I Special Improvement Tax District for the construction of the Dulles Corridor Metrorail Project.

...MWAA, Loudoun and Fairfax Counties will pay 4.1, 4.8, and 16.1 percent respectively of the total project cost; the remaining 75 percent comes from the Dulles Toll Road and state and federal funding.

... Fairfax County taxpayers would ... be responsible for a portion (16.1 percent) of any Phase I cost overruns"

Yes Mr. Bruhns, I did miss that regarding any Phase 1 overruns. That clearly seems to negate what Mr. Jackson above said VDOT conveyed to the Mclean Citizens Association in 2005.

But you said the same change also applies to Phase 2.. where is that written?

It actually comes from the funding agreement signed in July 2007, stix. Since MWAA, Fairfax County and Loudoun County agreed to remain in Phase II, the following now actually applies to Phase I and Phase II. Take a look:

www.mwaa.com/file/dtfundingagreement.pdf

"2.6 Cost Reductions and Increases

(a) ... The cost estimate at 100% preliminary engineering for Phase 2 shall be the Original Cost Estimate for Phase 2 of the project. Cost overruns, cost increases, additional cost, and Shared Betterments (as defined below) shall be funded as indicated in section 2.2(b)(2) of this Agreement."

--------

2.2 (b) says that 4.10% will come from MWAA Non-Dulles Toll Road Funds, 16.1% will come from Fairfax County, 4.8% will come from Loudoun County, and the rest (75%) will come from MWAA Dulles Toll Road Toll funds. Oh, and this is echoed in 2.6 (b) as well. In 2.6 (b), the 75% figure for the Dulles Toll Road funds is spelled out, instead of being identified by numeric subtraction as it was in 2.2 (b).

Didn't you know this? You are the one who accused me of making up fairy tales - so tell us, stix, did you think that cost overrun money would come from the Tooth Fairy or something? Where did you think it might be written that some Santa Claus would pay it for us, after we allowed MWAA to keep ballooning it up to the sky?

Let this be a lesson to you, stix - things don't work that way.

Thank you Mr. Bruhns for suggesting I re-look at the 2007 funding partner’s agreement for the answer to my original question re: potential Dulles Rail overruns. Re-reading the agreement painfully reminds me how slick Democrat Tim Kain (former VA governor now running for Senator) was to push through the near-total state financial responsibility and risk for Dulles Rail, to then Democrat Gerry Connolly (former FX BOS Chairman ,presently 11th District Congressman) and Loudoun county,

As to your rather snarky closing comment, I do believe in the Tooth Fairy and Santa Clause, in this case for “...costs paid from funds by the FTA or other grants, or other monies that may be made available from other entities, including but not limited to the Commonwealth...” as written in the agreement. One would hope there is a dedicated funding partner group set up to proactively seek other funding sources, including for example new tolls from travelers using the Dulles Access Road (now free) to get to the airport.

Certainly I have to wonder why no suggestion has been entertained by our so-called 'leaders' to apply tolls on the Airport Access Road. Perhaps MWAA has other plans for that money.

But you are completely wrong to deny the double price on the construction of this job. It does indeed cost about two times what it should cost. And the resulting tolls will never sit well, even if the planned increases are are cut in half. Anything that can be done, even now, to stop this ripoff, should be done. Dumping excessive costs onto taxpayers is not the answer.

Your position appears to be difficult, stix. You support the rail, you apologize for the cost, and you are interested in pointing the finger of blame only at certain Democrats for the resulting disaster. This is what is wrong with partisan thinking.

Yes, .we amaricans r very dumb bcoz this is a rase ishue

Thank you for providing us a glimpse of the Washington Metro from the perspective of the ultimate consumer. This is something that has been seriously lacking from many advocates of the Silver Line such as the Styx. They speak in platitudes and try to show how smart they are in their ability to read proposals, but seemingly not one of them has ever bothered to actually get out there and see how the system works, or doesn’t. Public transit, after all, is for the common people like me, not sophisticated people like themselves.

I am heart-sick about Metro. In another lifetime prior to Metro’s opening, I worked for a while in those tunnels at this time of year. It was very hot, sweaty, and to be a little melodramatic, dangerous. When opened, it was state-of-the-art and hailed as the most superior system in the world. I was very proud to be part of that. Today, however, it has lots of problems. And almost all of these problems can be attributed to deferred, insufficient maintenance and a failure to upgrade on a regular basis. It is an old relic of a system today and will be an absolute antique thirty years from now. For all of you people on your high-horse who has advocated for this Silver Line, and Stix I especially mean you, please tell me how we should go about making this heavy-rail system the showpiece it once was.

Yes, by donning blinders we can claim to see advantages to this rail project. One can only hope that somehow all of its positives, put together, might somehow manage to make it pay the outrageous price for itself, overall, during its lifespan - before it needs to be replaced. By agreeing to a double price, we really made that difficult. And we will be lucky to even get a Tifia LOAN for it. One consequence of a loan, of course, is that we (and our children, and our grandchildren) might actually have to pay that money back.

And then, there is the little matter of the traffic mess that we are about to enjoy because of Dulles Toll Road Refugees fleeing the usurious tolls soon to appear on the Dulles Toll Road (gee, I thought this rail project was supposed to _reduce_ congestion), and the little matter of the inadequate capacity of the Rosslyn Tunnel, and the little matter of the many-Billion dollar WMATA maintenance and capital needs backlog - which itself argues strongly that Metrorail simply does not pay for itself overall.

We need to overcome those little problems, or we are in for a genuine disaster here. Let our foolish approval of this particular project be the last bad decision we make in this matter. We need to pull this mess out of the fire, starting NOW.

NO IT DOESN'T!

What you're feeding us, Barbara, is the developers primo number 1 sales pitch that the county always follows to accommodate their VERY, VERY, SPECIAL INTEREST...THE DEVELOPERS:

"If we build it, they will come"

NO THEY WON'T!!!

Fairfax County has large offices all over the place, many brand new (like the shrine to over development at the Hunter Mill/Toll Road/Sunrise Valley intersection) that have NEVER HAD A SINGLE TENANT IN 10 YEARS. THEY'RE EMPTY....GET IT!?!?!!!?!

They built it, but no one came. We taxpayers do, however, get stiffed with the following:

1. Costs for any associated road modifications
2. Costs for any facilities modifications.
3. Losses past on to us through subseuent bankruptcies (THINK MILLIONS!)

Contrary to what the developers have sold the county officials, businesses do not react like cute little puppies with a new ball to development. They don't start wagging their tales just because the county allowed YET ANOTHER stupid building to go up and lead to YET ANOTHER series of subsequent bankruptcies. Companies don't look at the county and say, "Golly Jeepers .... it's a brand new shiny building .... let's spend $20M relocating to Fairfax. NO ONE but idiots thinks like that.

There needs to be a reason for a company to relocate, and a fed. govt. that will be forced to cut budgets plus the worst traffic in the US are hardly good sales incentives.

The only thing developers bring are problems - YET AGAIN.

There is no evidence whatsoever that rail is going to bring jobs.

How soon people forget! When the Dunn Loring Metro was put in, it was claimed by developers and county executives (primarily those in govt. wings tied to development) that the area needed "more development" just as they're doing in Fairfax.

The developers got their approvals, and up started going the buildings. The only thing missing? Tenants, of course. For at least 10 years may of these "mega structures" were empty or marginally filled. Now some of them are finally beginning to fill up, but only after nearly 15-20 years.

I truly believe that the development community is, working with elements inside the county government, deliberately perpetuating investment fraud on a very large scale, and I think it's worthy of criminal investigation.

The more I look into the ways that space use for expensive commercial office space has been fiddled with and manipulated by county employees, the more it looks to me like they're attempting to put out a fraudulent "need for more development."

In a nutshell, developers con (and I literally mean con) investors into financing a mega structure. The building goes up, the developers are paid, and then the investors are left sitting their with an empty building on their hands with no demand for it's use anywhere in site.

As far as I'm concerned, this is just stealing, period.

You failed to note that because of the Silver Line, FXCO Zoning has increased Reston's density from 68,000 to 150,000. And you think there will be LESS single-car transportation and LESS air pollution? LESS urban sprawl?
What are you smoking??

Kathi Robinson:

You're saying that just because the area has been rezoned to a higher density, it will magically fill up? Is that your "logic?"

Rail to Dulles was stupid enough, but trying to turn Reston into an ultra-high density city is even dumber. All one need do is look at the SHRINE TO OVERDEVELOPMENT at the intersection of Hunter Mill, the tool road, and Sunset Hills. That building has been empty, with ZERO (let me repeat that....ZERO) tenants. The office park beside it is 50% full if lucky. Drive down Sunrise Valley and enter each of the "sub divisions" of office parks - One sparsely filled office after another. One must by utterly blind to miss it. If you really like being alone, go to the end of Sunrise Valley and observe the utter masses of empty or sparsely filled buildings.

Just because the county rezoned this area to be ultra high density doesn't mean people want to live here. I suspect the tax handout to upper middle income people to move into Tysons is because it's an overdeveloped eyesore with non-stop congestion, and NO ONE wants to live there - paying people to move there is the only way they could get people to actually move in .... and of course to help prop up the county's faltering very, very, special interest - the developers.

I'm not sure how blind one needs to be to miss this.

Tolls are going to rise, but I have no doubt that the tolls will be manageable. None of this is a shock, and it's part of the growing pains that are part of the development of Metro and Loudoun. The problems with the agencies in charge are being fixed, and without a doubt, being under such a microscope, the whole Metro system will improve greatly. It already has.

Sure, the tolls will be manageable. They will be managed by (1) allowing huge traffic problems because of the Toll Road Refugees fleeing the usurious tolls, (2) until riots break out, (3) whereupon a Great Big Bond (or two) will be floated (by Fairfax and Loudoun Counties - SURPRISE!!!) to _partially_ pay down the tolls - this may or may not be a federal Tifia loan, but (4) this LOAN must be paid back by you, your children and your grandchildren, and (5) tolls will still be disgustingly high. This will go on for fifty years or more.

Hey, fifty years will go by faster than you think. However, this is not what I would call good stewardship of this region.

Much of this could have been avoided, if the People had risen up and opposed the double price of this job. But that didn't happen, did it.

And yes, CC, the Metro system is trying. Unfortunately it keeps having problems detecting the presence of trains on the tracks, resulting in the shutdown we recently saw, and even resulting in a very deadly crash a few years back (demonstrating that this is not a new problem). Maybe if the escalators worked better, etc, maintenance crews could get around and work on it more easily. But there seems to be a major financial problem in this economic marvel called Metro, so the problems continue. And given the madhouse economics of our own Metro extension, I submit that this problem shows no real sign of improving.

"...the Metro will bring jobs."

So the trains are hiring? Is that how that works?

Oh...Oh....Oh.... I get it. The developers use taxpayer money to build a rail system, con .....errrr, I mean convince some brilliant Wall Street investors into buying into an overdevelopment scheme where mega buildings are put up, and companies, so anxious to waste stockholder money relocating to an area that has the worst traffic in the U.S. .....and all just because the developers did it.

No, to me it sounds like that "Rah Rah Boys of Over Development" are trying to hijack yet another set of arguments critical about rail and over development.

Don't worry, "Rah, Rah Boys" - The county isn't exactly known for it's intelligence - you'll have your way and a ton of everyone else's money to boot.

So, CC, you won't see it until the riots actually happen, then. And of course if it's just a bunch of loud screaming, I'm still disqualified - and then the Tifia loan won't happen, or it will, and nobody will have to pay it back. Or something. That's excellent planning there. Truly excellent. Good to see you again, by the way.

I think it's funny that Bob thinks riots are now going to break out. I hope I get to attend the first riot, I will be selling hotdogs and refreshments. Rioters gotta eat to yo!!!

So good to see you again, Bac. You know, the present plan has tolls going up in 2013, 2014 and 2015, in order to reach $4.50 per trip in 2015. The scale will begin to tip in January 2013, and the angry faces will be getting very red in January 2014. By 2015, people will clearly see what you sold them here. But no worries - you can just pop back in using different pen names, and remark about how bad things are. Oh, did somebody say something about credibility?

Shortly after you wrote that, it turned out that there will be an Inspector General at MWAA after all.

New watchdog for Dulles Rail board
Washington Examiner, July 24, 2012
http://washingtonexaminer.com/new-watchdog-for-dulles-rail-board/article/2503000

This is in addition to the audit of MWAA by the US DOT Inspector General, that has been going on since June 2011, and the audit of Dulles Rail Phase II by the US DOT Inspector General, that has been going on since March 2012.

Well Pete, I only wish that you silent conservatives had spoken out against this Dulles Rail project, because it is yet another big-government handout of borrowed money - and worse, it is a double handout, because the price of this project close to two times what it should have been.

Silent conservatives might want to consider this: if it is OK that government set up the unaccountable MWAA to overcharge us for this rail line, and if it is OK that our Fairfax County and Loudoun County leaders approved this ineffective, overpriced mess without knowing how they might ever pay for it, etc - then tell me what is wrong with Obamacare?

Silent, conservatives, eh? Meaning that you all stood by, whistled and looked the other way, while this project worked as follows: MWAA was set up almost above the law; it proceeded to overprice Dulles Rail by close to 2:1 in Phase II; no MWAA Board member commented on the stunning misconduct of the MWAA Board - until the Inspector General of the US DOT revealed that misconduct on May 15, 2012 - yet now that the MWAA Board is supposed to select who will RECEIVE the double prices that they established for Dulles Rail Phase II, we hear considerable comment from them; they don't want new members seated, and they dont want dubious members removed.

As for the riots, consider this: the train won't go where most Dulles Toll Road drivers need to go, the tolls will be unaffordable; the roads will be jammed. Riots are actually likely.

And of course, I don't mean to single out self-identified "1 percenter" conservatives. I consider the out of control MWAA Dulles Rail Phase II price-hike circus to have been mostly a Democratic party initiative. But a Republican fundraiser was at the head of the MWAA Board during much of the worst period, and a prominent Democratic party fundraiser was on the MWAA Board as well, etc. And the coverup of the $53 million 2011 FTA blunder, the coverup of the near-double price of this job, and the cover-up of the financial audit of Dulles Rail Phase II that began in March 2012, were bipartisan efforts as well, that included obvious collusion by the news media. And Democrats and Republicans on the Fairfax County and Loudoun County Boards voted in favor of this mess. This Dulles Rail fiasco was a bi-partisan effort.

It is, however, worthy of note that the few on the county boards who were AGAINST this ripoff, were all Republicans.

Media reports of the IG report of May 15, 2012 were a continuation of their earlier cover up, because the only thing they reported about the March 2012 audit was that the very initial findings of the IG were that the toll road forecasts appeared to be 'in order'. The media reports never mention or hint that there even IS a study of financial risks going on, even though that is a primary part of the audit that began in March 2012. The IG had no report on that yet, which is understandable given that the audit is just beginning. But the news media cover-up continues, despite the shocking May 15, 2012 IG preliminary report.

As for the board, a clean sweep is what is needed. Any member who was on that board and said nothing about the misconduct, or who spent an indefensible amount of money on travel, or who held inappropriate closed door meetings, etc, needs to go. The existing board is too tainted to be in charge of this project. We do not want or need such a dubious board handling all of these contract assignments, particularly on a job of this magnitude, and especially with the excessive prices that this board has indicated will be considered normal.