Board Ponders Loudoun's 'Biggest Decision'
Supervisors received an update about the potential revenue generated by participating in Metro's Silver Line project.
A presentation about the potential fiscal impacts of Metro on Loudoun - if the Board of Supervisors agrees to participate in Phase 2 of the Silver Line project - clarified some questions, but also appeared to fuel arguments for those for and against participating.
The presentation by Len Bogorad, the managing director of Charles Robert Lesser & Co., the company that conducted the fiscal impact study, showed that commercial developers would be drawn to the county with or without rail. However, he also said there would be lost opportunities without Metro because businesses would be drawn to rail stations to the east.
Supervisor Suzanne Volpe (R-Algonkian) said the decision the board must make is huge. In an earlier meeting, someone called it the biggest decision since Dulles Airport, but Volpe pointed out that the federal government made the that decision.
“So, in reality, this is probably the biggest decision the county have ever faced, so let’s not take it lightly,” she said.
Supervisor Ken Reid (R-Leesburg) focused on the Lesser report finding that the county would grow regardless of Metro.
“You can have the growth with Metro or without,” he said, repeating Bogarad’s assertion.
However, Bogorad’s offered caveats.
“There’s no question in our mind that is does affect development locations. Stations are attractive sites for development,” he said. “There will be development that would not have occurred in Loudoun that will be in Loudoun County if rail happens. Loudoun will be quite competitive if there is rail there and will not be competitive without it.”
The Lesser report estimates a 7 percent increase in non-residential development in Loudoun with rail, and that the development would be concentrated more closely around the rail stations because businesses prefer multimodal transportation.
Reid pointed to the development that occurred along the Dulles Toll Road prior to the approval of the Silver Line project. While Tysons Corner may not be the best comparison because of its proximity to the Capital Beltway, Reid and others who oppose Loudoun’s participation next point to Reston as an example of growth without rail. Both are places now slated for Silver Line stations.
“Combining rail with a good highway is going to attract even more development,” Lesser said.
A major concern of some following the debate is whether the project will result in significant debt for the county. While the Lesser report shows positive revenue generation, it does not include the costs of rail. Loudoun has appropriated money for construction of the project in its capital improvement program, but there’s no actual money in hand, which is why supervisors are considering additional sources of revenue such as a tax district.
“We haven’t … discussed on this board or the previous boards, how we would pay for it,” said County Chairman Scott K. York (R-At Large). “If we institute a special tax district and a couple of other things, then you’re generating another source of revenue above this.”
York has also argued that there are few alternatives to rail to move people east and west because of Dulles International Airport and the lack of expansion space along existing roads, but Reid said he doesn’t believe that.
“The idea that we can’t build capacity anywhere on Route 7 or anywhere else is a myth,” Reid said. However, he offered no specific proposals during the meeting.
Supervisor Ralph Buona (R-Ashburn) said he’s been getting lots of questions from people in his district who are “surprised and dismayed” that the project is in question.
“All of them thought is was a done deal,” he said.
There has been a difficulty in estimating benefit for several reasons. For example, the Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments growth estimates for Loudoun show half the residents, but more jobs than estimates by Moody’s Ratings.
The Lesser report is based on existing planning and zoning in the county and did not contemplate changes to either. Rail would result in about 4,800 new homes in the county (primarily from increases at existing sites triggered by rail), about 1.4 million square feet of additional office space, 670,000 square feet of retail and nearly 300 additional hotel rooms, according to the Lesser report.
At least two supervisors wondered by Lesser did not study a scenario where rail ended at Dulles. Bogorad and Ben Mays, Loudoun’s deputy chief financial officer, said at the time the study was conducted there was no discussion about ending the line at Metro.
The debate seems to grow more complex with each meeting, making it difficult to address every variable.
The board will continue its discussion on the fiscal impacts during a May 16 work session that also includes a parking study conducted by the county.
JohnQ
12:45 pm on Wednesday, May 16, 2012
Why should I as a Loudoun resident care about their economy or growth when they could care less about helping my personal economy?
Just say no to Metro!
Melvin Summers
11:49 pm on Wednesday, May 16, 2012
Because it will bring money, jobs and allow workers that work for cheaper wages, the ability to transport around the county to work. It will take traffic off of our clogged roads. I think all of the good citizens in Loudoun county that pay the same taxes that our friends in neighboring counties are entitled to the same services as they get.
Just say YES to Metro
jimmy
9:05 am on Thursday, May 17, 2012
Because it will bring money, jobs and allow workers that work for cheaper wages, the ability to transport around the county to work. It will take traffic off of our clogged roads.
How is it going to allow people to transport about the county? we are not getting stops all over the place? The reports i have seen say more cars will go onto our roads because of increased tolls.
CC Mojo
1:27 pm on Wednesday, May 16, 2012
I'm trying to decide where I'm going to ride the Silver Line first. It's pretty exciting to think of what new businesses will get here, actually.
Bob Bruhns
2:03 pm on Wednesday, May 16, 2012
Ride it to the bank, to get money to pay for it? Lots and lots of money to pay for it? Wait a minute, I guess we'll have to get the government to borrow that money, because this was such a great idea that no businesses or banks would finance it. Yeah. But now there is a forecast from one economist at GMU that claims big huge multi-hundred-million-dollar returns, so maybe a private business should approach a bank again? NO? Why not?
Dusty Smith
2:13 pm on Wednesday, May 16, 2012
In terms of Loudoun's share, a tax district that would assess businesses in the Metro area is in consideration, which would put the cost in part on businesses. However, there aren't many businesses there now to pay in. Is there precedent for businesses doing such a large project? Is there a mechanism for the multiple businesses that potentially benefit to coordinate such financing in some other method?
CC Mojo
3:14 pm on Wednesday, May 16, 2012
Those are great points, Dusty. I'd like to hear those answers, as well.
Bob, stop raining on my parade. You're like the little engine (choo choo) that brings nothing but doom and gloom, suspicion and a lack of consideration for the happy people of Loudoun looking forward to taking advantage of the Metro.
Bob Bruhns
6:51 pm on Wednesday, May 16, 2012
Well CC, it's fairly clear that SOMEBODY is planning to take advantage of this Metro, because there appears to be about a Billion and a half dollars of overcharge in it. But I don't think that advantage will benefit the people of Loudoun County, or of Fairfax County either, for that matter.
CC Mojo
10:39 pm on Wednesday, May 16, 2012
Bob, *I* am planning to take advantage of the Metro, are you serious? I'd so much rather be on the train than stuck in this traffic. I'm so going to reap the benefits of what develops in the area, for my business, for my kids, it's just worth it to me.
REDevelopingLoCo
12:47 pm on Friday, May 18, 2012
Dusty, I'm not exactly sure of the answer to your question. But, I'm curious if Tax Increment financing (TIF) is a method of approach. It's is a method to use future gains in taxes to subsidize current improvements, which are projected to create the conditions for said gains. The completion of a public project often results in an increase in the value of surrounding real estate, which generates additional tax revenue. So, basically, Loudoun would be borrowing against the future increase in these property-tax revenues. We see this in large scale development projects such as the Marriott Marquis Conventions Center Hotel downtown & National Harbor. It's focus is to cover infrastructure related costs.
Bob Bruhns
2:14 pm on Friday, May 18, 2012
Dusty - I read that there was, some years ago, a proposal to make a Northern Virginia transportation tax district, but that it was voted down.
CC - that's great, you'll take the train to work, instead of being in traffic. But what if your job is in Centreville?
Dusty Smith
3:28 pm on Friday, May 18, 2012
Bob, one of the things Loudoun has discussed is developing some sort of tax district around the two planned stations beyond the airport. I don't know all of the details, but that's one of the many things supervisors are examining as they weigh this decision. It would not impact anything other than Loudoun's share. Loudoun has little control over whether the project goes to the airport.
Bob Bruhns
12:11 pm on Monday, May 21, 2012
Dusty - don't you think that by now, the Loudoun County BOS should have at least -considered- how the County might pay for this rail project? Is this how they plan all of their jobs, or only the really big ones?
Bob Bruhns
10:22 am on Wednesday, May 23, 2012
Loudoun County was considering a rail tax district in 2010. This was reported in loudouni.com on June 7, 2010 in an article "Loudoun May Pitch Tax District to Pay for Rail - Consultant to Help Craft Proposal to Present to Board of Supervisors" written by Jason Jacks. Unfortunately, loudouni was bought by another news business, and the article vanished.
The article quoted BOS Chair Scott York and Jim Burton on the rail tax district subject. It also stated that a reporter also asked two future rail station area landowners about it - and they acted like they never heard of such an idea. The article also stated that several other companies that owned land near the future station sites were e-mailed, but those companies did not respond.
The article stated that the multi-hundred-milion dollar cost was known, and the county had this planned in the Capital Budget plan, and that bonds backed by business/professional/occupational licenses, and gas tax money, were being considered to pay for it.
That was two years ago. This wasn't a secret, nor was it overlooked - so why wasn't it addressed?
(By the way - is York an Independent - as that report stated? I keep hearing that the LCBOS is Republican.)
Michael
11:33 am on Thursday, May 24, 2012
Bob asks, "what if your job is in Centreville?" So, Bob, is your standard that a project is only worthwhile if it reaches every job in every locality? The people whose jobs are in Centreville will benefit, because as others take Metro, space will open up on the roads. That's how this works.
Victoria Glenn
1:44 pm on Wednesday, May 16, 2012
The growth is going to happen so better to be ahead of it than left behind. New businesses and the jobs that come with will be a nice boost to local economy as well.
Bob Booey
3:49 pm on Wednesday, May 16, 2012
Exactly, Victoria. The growth IS going to happen. There is no getting around that. So you either pay for it now and get everything in place, before the growth happens. Or you do it later for a much higher cost. As years pass the price of construction and construction materials goes up and up. That is just the way it is, as with anything else. So lets build the thing now and enjoy its convienence!
Victoria Glenn
8:53 pm on Wednesday, May 16, 2012
Exactly...lets get ahead of the growth and attract good businesses to the area with a fantastic and convenient rail line.
Melvin Summers
12:23 am on Friday, May 18, 2012
Building it now, while they already have the equipment and man power in place will be a lot cheaper. Waiting doesnt make sense, all that extra money, all that extra pollution, all that extra wasted time. We all know that Loudon need good public transportation and we know that the Metro will be clean and dependable. Why wait until it is an epidemic. We already have the third worst traffic in the whole country, and not having Metro stations is one of the reasons why.
Yes to Metro
Bob Bruhns
11:38 pm on Sunday, May 20, 2012
Ah, so it would be another no-bid contract?
Kadey Mackenzie
3:32 pm on Wednesday, May 16, 2012
Bring the metro to Loudoun County! The roads can only be expanded so far to accommodate the growth in this area. What then? You want to talk buses? Ok, fine, but they are going to be on the road with all of those cars...going nowhere. Call me crazy, but I'm really looking forward to a less stressful, more convenient way of getting around and enjoying this great area and what is has to offer and if that's where my taxes are going then so be it! Paying taxes for something myself and my family will benefit from sounds like a nice change.
Bob Bruhns
12:50 am on Monday, May 21, 2012
Is rail only supposed to go to Ashburn? And can the roads from there then suddenly handle all of the bus and automobile traffic to get people to and from Leesburg, north, south and beyond?
This is the real world, these are real dollars, and this is a real decision, not some kind of a game. Face the facts - you simply do not have the necessary population density for rail now. That is why you can not get federal money or even a federally supported loan for this rail line.
Snap out of it. Build a bus road in the Phase II rail right of way, preferably extend it beyond Ashburn, maybe to Leesburg, maybe further, and use it for BUS - until such time as rail makes sense!
Michael
11:36 am on Thursday, May 24, 2012
Bob, the truth is, when Metro came to Fairfax, Shady Grove, or Greenbelt, they didn't have the density to support it either. But it is smarter to build the infrastructure first, before the density comes. In any case, a terminus station with park-and-ride facilities doesn't have to meet the same density test as a neighborhood station, because it can draw its riders from a much broader area.
Janie Oldham
2:49 am on Thursday, May 17, 2012
How much are we going to have to pay? How much will the tolls go up to pay for it? The study shows 30,000 more cars on Route 7 because people will leave the Dulles toll road as the tolls go up to pay for metro. Supervisors are saying that taxes will go up, but only a small amount. We already have the highest property taxes in the DC are and the entire south, all the way to the Gulf of Mexico! Didn't we elect this board to LOWER taxes, not raise them?
We have NO idea how much this will ultimately cost all of us, other than higher taxes, higher tolls, and higher traffic.
Just say no! Opt us out of this mess! Read what Frank Wolf says about the airport authority, the folks who want to stick us with this huge bill! http://virginiavirtucon.wordpress.com/2012/05/15/wolf-hits-mwaa-on-ig-findings/
Victoria Glenn
9:37 am on Thursday, May 17, 2012
Well perhaps some of those 30,000 cars will actually, I dont know...try public transportation because the traffic is so bad and ride the rail?
Victoria Glenn
5:16 pm on Monday, May 21, 2012
Rob, your arguments against commuting by rail are that you forgot to pee and left the lights on in the car? Seriously? Not to mention that forgetting to pee before leaving home..something my 4 yr old knows to do..can be even more of a problem if you get stuck in traffic halfway to work because of an accident. Perhaps its time to remember you are a big boy and use the potty before you leave home?
Victoria Glenn
11:27 am on Tuesday, May 22, 2012
Its not going to just benefit the people who commute deep into DC..how about those who right now cannot get work because of being limited to where and when the buses operate? The rail will bring new jobs as well as access to those jobs. I am well aware that it is an expensive project, and like everything the government is involved in, flawed. But the benefits seem to far outweigh any argument against the rail I have heard. (not counting needing to pee)
Libby
7:41 am on Thursday, May 17, 2012
I'd much rather have had the $20+ I spent on tolls yesterday going towards something fruitful - like Metro.
Michael
9:01 am on Thursday, May 17, 2012
Bob what do you do for a job because I want to do that. You have all the time in the world to wait for these articles and respond to every single comment! Man I wish I had that kind of time at work!
Bob Bruhns
11:41 pm on Sunday, May 20, 2012
No, I won't shut up, Michael.
Why there are so few people able and willing to stand up to this farce of a rail plan, I don't know. If this region is going to have all these high paying jobs, we'll certainly need more people who can do addition, subtraction, and reality checks.
Patrick Narkinsky
9:09 am on Thursday, May 17, 2012
The bottom line is that this is a "quality of life" issue and its too big and complicated for private industry to accomplish. I'm lucky (I live in Leesburg and work in Ashburn), but not too long ago I had to make my way to a doctor's appointment at 8:45AM in Fairfax near where 50 crosses the beltway. It took me 2 hours due to traffic.
Could I have ridden metro to this appt? Probably not, at least not easily. But Metro would have taken a lot of those cars blocking my way off the road and freed up resources for those who need to drive. I can't imagine what it's like to be one of the many Loudoun citizens who have to commute to the city every day, spending 4 hours a day in traffic.
The reality is that building the Silver Line is eventually going to happen, and if we wait it will be even more expensive.
Bob Bruhns
12:03 am on Monday, May 21, 2012
Given that the cost of Phase II is bloated two to one, I don't see how inflation will beat cost control any time soon.
What Loudoun County, and also Fairfax County, should build, possibly with Virginia DOT assistance, is bus lanes, in the track right of way for Phase II, and beyond. Establish and reserve the future rail right of way, create and run a sensible transit system for the population density you have now, and expand to rail if and when that becomes appropriate.
You'll need buses to get anybody into the central and western parts of Loudoun County from Ashburn and Dulles anyway; you aren't planning to use oxcarts, pogo sticks, skateboards or unicycles, are you? Or magic carpets, etc. Why not face facts, and do this like actual adult human beings?
Michael
11:37 am on Thursday, May 24, 2012
Bob, you'll get further with your arguments if you stop insulting people. Just because some disagree with you doesn't mean they're not "actual adult human beings." We were not all made in your mold.
jimmy
9:10 am on Thursday, May 17, 2012
to me it seems like this is a easy choice. Have it go to IAD and that way we get the benefit without all the cost
Laszlo A
10:30 am on Thursday, May 17, 2012
From seeing what I experience everyday, I would not trust these people's motives. For example, why is Loudoun County Parkway not finished? If there is hurdle, why is not resolved? Now, THAT will make the morning commute of many going 28 South easier (e.g., not dealing with the inconsiderate drivers that want to take the toll rooad to DC and change lanes at the last minute). Plus the little things! ... why is the bump on L.C.Pkway at the entrance of the Redskins (in that ridiculous three-block 25 mph stretch) not fixed? Have you, authorities, driven there and see how so many moronic drivers literally STOP to pass the bump? Now that is a HAZARD for those driving behind since it is not foreseen. These people are bureaucrats making executive decisions out of mere financial concerns, nothing else. I have lived in other counties, states and countries and I have NEVER experienced the level of incompetence of Loudoun. Who is saying this is the wealthiest county in the states?! Unbelievable.
CC Mojo
11:02 am on Thursday, May 17, 2012
Forbes?
Phase II is a financial concern, of course it is, and one that benefits the entire region. Nit picking the Parkway - Maybe the Skins want people to slow down and admire the bubble? I don't see the comparison.
Burt Rosenberg
11:05 am on Thursday, May 17, 2012
Let's give credit to the Loudon supervisors. They are using the best tool they have to keep costs down and accountable...namely threatening to withhold funding. Wish us Dulles Toll Road users could do that, without flooding the other roads with even more gridlock from toll road refugees.
Burt Rosenberg
11:07 am on Thursday, May 17, 2012
Correction: Loudoun. Sorry for misspelling.
The BSD Guy
2:03 pm on Thursday, May 17, 2012
Loudoun County is FILLED, literally FILLED with empty office buildings .... I suspect it's even worse that Fairfax.
Fairfax,County deliberately skews occupancy levels by putting warehouse space in the same category as commercial office space. It's a cool trick, guys ... take a large, expensive office building that's empty and can hold, oh, say 500 workers, and average that unused floor space with that of a low cost warehouse having 10 X the floor space being 100% occupied with a total of 20 workers .... voila! 90% occupancy ... clearly we need more development!!. Loudoun needs to make sure they're realistically assessing their real needs and not being spoon fed crack pipe pseudo economics by special interests.
COMMON SENSE tells me if they saw a need for rail, they could do it any time in the future. COMMON SENSE is also telling me they're being pressured to make a fast and hasty decision so some special interests can cash in on some big bucks BEFORE this project is completed. The last thing special interests want Loudoun to do is wait 5-10 years in the future and see rail as an underutilized, costly asset that didn't lead to the "BOOM TOWN" scenarios special interests promised.
Peter Trelogan
2:23 pm on Thursday, May 17, 2012
Let's Go Metro!!!
Jonathan Erickson
4:32 pm on Thursday, May 17, 2012
WellI I hope Ralph Buona is surprised and dismayed with the MWAA after the DOT audit. No bid contracts yikes!
Melvin Summers
12:11 am on Friday, May 18, 2012
Ashburn just keeps getting bigger, traffic keeps getting worse, the busses are defunct and I for one am sick of waisting my time sitting in my car breathing in the fumes from the redneck in front of me who had to run out and get a nice big f350 with custom exhaust pipes that spew black smoke everywhere. I'm sick of my kids having to breathe it in and would like a clean dependable open 7 days a week way of getting around. Bottom line is we need Metro and have for quite some time.
Yes to Metro
Bob Bruhns
12:34 am on Monday, May 21, 2012
Hey - if Metro is so great, then why can't Virginia, Maryland and DC - PUT TOGETHER - pay for what they have now?
Bus is defunct? Who did that? What will you use to get people from the Ashburn and Dulles stations to jobs in Leesburg and the rest of Loudoun County? I keep asking this. Bus makes the most sense but the pro-rail people don't like bus, so I guess they are planning to use tricycles, unicycles, oxcarts, horse and buggies, and pogo sticks, or something.
No, silly Bob, they're in favor of bus for that after all? Then why is bus not good enough to go all the way to Wiehle Avenue in Reston? Maybe on the toll road, maybe on a bus road built in the rail right of way and used for bus, until such time as Phase II rail actually MAKES SENSE?
Or if you want rail - there should be a tax district at the rail stations. Where have your leaders been for the past two years since that was suggested and discussed? SOMEBODY owns that land. If the present landowners can't pay the tax now, then maybe they should SELL it to somebody who CAN. No matter what they paid for the land - they will be making out like bandits this year. Or are Loudoun County Taxpayers supposed to finance them? If so, there needs to be a tax lien and/or judgement against the property, with the usual 8% interest for a judgement, to be paid to the County at such time as the property is sold or becomes profitable - at the very least. They would get loans real quick.
Wake up, people! You are being robbed!
Burt Rosenberg
1:09 am on Friday, May 18, 2012
Even if "yes," there are serious questions: At what price? Who pays? How can costs be kept down? And how can MWAA stop wasting money on conferences in Hawaii? (Sorry, couldn't help myself on the last one.)
joe brewer
5:07 pm on Sunday, May 20, 2012
So we have spent 589 million dollars on engineering and 40% of that or 235 million was no-bid contracts? Are you talking to me?
Larry
9:14 am on Monday, May 21, 2012
I don't understand why have public meetings if several members already have their mind made up(Scott, Ralph & Shawn). Oh, news flash to Ralph, actually, most of my neighbors do not want metro to Loudoun because of the higher taxes and placement of stops. It appears these supervisors have already gotten some form a kickbacks, especially when you look at metro from a common sense/logic sense. It doesn't make sense! And anything MWAA has to do with is corrupt.
RKO
2:25 pm on Monday, May 21, 2012
I would suggest that Loudoun County residents do the following:
1. Drive into various regions of Fairfax County during rush hour, and ask yourself if this is the future you want. In particular, visit some of those "Metro Based, Well Planned" areas where instead of having smoothly flowing and limited traffic it's wall to wall gridlock ... no, make that deadlock. Visit some of these areas on weekends. Why so much traffic? Why aren't all these new residents packed into mega structures taking the train to get groceries? Oh, that's right, the train doesn't stop at the grocery store.
2. Take a trip to a local grocery store, and count the number of lights. Now figure about 20X people live in the area, figure 20X the traffic, and probably 20X the lights. Did your leisurely 10 minute drive to the grocery store just become a 45 min. ordeal?
3. Visit Fairfax County and count the empty buildings. The area is over developed, period. Stupid (and I do mean Stupid) politicians are being spoon fed money making scams from the developers. It's been going on for years. Count you're own empty buildings. If I recall correctly you have a lot of fairly sizable empty units along Rt. 28 and near the mall. Why are these empty? Why have some of them been empty for 10+ years?
I happen to agree with other posters that believe you can expand rail any time. Developers want it now before you can find out what a failure it will be, and all at your expense.
Melvin Summers
9:00 pm on Tuesday, May 22, 2012
The tolls are going up, traffic is crazy, we need the Metro so people from Ashburn to DC will finally be connected. For the price of a singles day toll, you will be able to get to DC and back and read you paper the whole time. (I like the funnies) Save the air a little relax and plan your day, all while someone else is driving. It's about time we got the Metro.
Yes to Metro
Burt Rosenberg
10:19 pm on Tuesday, May 22, 2012
<< For the price of a singles day toll, you will be able to get to DC and back >>
Wrong, wrong, wrong, Melvin! The proposed DTR tolls would go up astronomically every year to subsidize that bucolic sweet dream you describe riding the train. The price of a single day's toll will go waayy beyond the cost of riding the Silver Line. Check out the MWAA-proposed toll numbers. Best to wake up from the "dream", before DTR tolls and clogged surface roads become a nightmare.
Victoria Glenn
12:28 am on Wednesday, May 23, 2012
The tolls are going to rise period, as is the cost of gas, almost every argument I have heard against the rail involves spending money elsewhere, on buses and dedicated bus lanes for example, and road improvements. That has to be paid for somehow too. One way to ease those clogged roads is oh I dont know..ride the rail?
YES to metro!!
Bob Bruhns
10:33 am on Wednesday, May 23, 2012
Yeah bus costs money - but less money, so it can extend further. How about all the way to Leesburg? And where roads are less congested, it can just transition to the regular roads.
The federal government considers Dulles Rail Phase II, aka Rail to Dulles, aka Rail to Loudoun, aka the Silver Line (Phase II), to be so ridiculous that it won't provide funds, or even underwrite a loan, for this rail extension. Maybe you should... you know... take the hint?
Has anybody asked USDOT, Virginia or VDOT if funds might be available for BUS? Maybe somebody should.
Victoria Glenn
5:56 pm on Wednesday, May 23, 2012
Seriously Bob..getting tired of your bus bus bus bus bus tune...its getting old.
Rail in conjunction with buses will get people who have no other means of transportation out to jobs and shopping that they would not otherwise have access to much easier than buses alone. Buses cause excess pollution, the rail would decrease the pollution as fewer cars were on the road. This would also decrease the already congested roadways. The economic growth that will come with the rail extension would not come with buses, that would only bring more pollution, more congestion and more roadwork.
Bob Bruhns
6:39 pm on Wednesday, May 23, 2012
Victoria, I can understand why you don't like me writing about bus - it's because you have to stop talking about rail to read it.
All of the jobs you are talking about would then have to be very close to the stations - and gee, Loudoun County conveniently forgot to plan for any tax districts there, until days before this momentous decision. Hmmmm.
And if people coming in want to get to a job farther away from the stations, which I think they might, then they would need (gasp) BUS, or as I have been pointing out, they would need unicycles, pogo sticks, skateboards and magic carpets to GET to those jobs. No? So why not bus in the rail right of way from Reston?
And people leaving the county by rail would need to drive and park (consider that cost, plus the fare), or they would need BUS, or they would need a folding pogo stick or skateboard that they could then put in their briefcases. No?
The reality is that rail makes no sense for Loudoun County for the forseeable future, but BUS does. It will take probably 20 to 30 years before you have enough population density - although people fleeing Fairfax County because of Dulles Rail might speed your growth up, if you have a bus system that works.
Victoria Glenn
11:11 pm on Wednesday, May 23, 2012
There will be a need for buses, which is why I said "in conjunction with" but buses are still prone to traffic delays, and to get these dedicated lanes will cost plenty, cause more delays because of construction.. Rail is much more efficient, and if anything will ease the already over-crowded roads.
Bob Bruhns
6:36 am on Thursday, May 24, 2012
Whatever bus costs, rail costs more. However long it takes to build bus lanes in planned rail corridors, rail will take longer.
How better to reserve a dedicated rail line route than by using it for dedicated BUS, until such time as the ridership and the transit corridors develop?
You want to drop everything and pay hundreds of millions of dollars, to run rail where there is no business now! You are so far ahead of yourselves that you will bring another Greenway bankruptcy onto the county - only a bigger one this time. Those who fail to learn the lessons of history, are doomed to repeat them.
Establish a transit corridor with BUS, and then convert it to rail mile by mile - when the ridership and business pattern have developed.
RKO
2:15 pm on Wednesday, May 23, 2012
I would suggest some people complaining about the cost of busses vs. metro do the following:
1. Obtain the cost of a bus
2. Obtain the cost of a metro rail locomotive.
3. Obtain the cost of a metro rail passenger car.
4. Find out how many cars are in the average metro rail train.
5. Arithmetic time!
Rail Cost: (locomotive cost) + (avg. number of passenger cars) X (cost of passenger car)
Bus Cost: (cost of a bus) X (number of busses it takes to equal a metro train)
If memory serves me correctly, the metro rail is about 20X more expensive, but that's old knowledge. Someone in Loudoun should verify it (and NOT a developer or Dr. Fuller :-o )
Victoria Glenn
6:00 pm on Wednesday, May 23, 2012
well don't forget to factor in the potential capacity of 1 train vs how many buses...and the maintenance costs, 1 train vs how many buses, and fuel, and road maintenance, and the impact of the pollution... Your math is oversimplified. The train may cost more than X number of buses initially, but you need to consider maintenance, fuel and long term effects to get a real picture.
YES TO METRO YES TO THE FUTURE !
Bob Bruhns
6:46 am on Thursday, May 24, 2012
All one really has to do is look at the WMATA Metro system now. Virginia, DC and Maryland PUT TOGETHER can't pay for it.
How is it that Loudoun County is richer than Fairfax County, when Fairfax County has had Metro to Falls Church and Vienna for years? I guess people in Loudoun are tired of having wealth. Well, no problem - this rail plan can fix that!
Michael
11:40 am on Thursday, May 24, 2012
Bob, VA -MD-DC together can't pay for their roads either. That's not a function of wealth, nor is it a function of the cost of rail. Its a function of the lack of political will and conservatives keep insisting that nothing actually needs to be paid for.
Bob Bruhns
6:22 pm on Thursday, May 24, 2012
Michael, here in Northern Virginia, we need the political will to do what will actually WORK - put BUS lanes into the future rail right of way to reserve them for the future, and to use them today and for the next 20 to 30 years, until rail might become realistic in western Fairfax and eastern Loudoun Counties. Jumping to rail out here now, is such a bad idea that the federal government won't fund it, or even underwrite a loan for it. We should take the hint, and do things right, instead of caving to pressure from construction interests and rail area landowners. Fairfax and Loudoun Counties, the Commonwealth of Virginia and the US Federal Government are not, and should not be, their finance agents.
Melvin Summers
10:55 pm on Wednesday, May 23, 2012
Trains vs busses is a no brainer. Trains don't spew clouds of black smoke, and they don't Back traffic up every time they stop. Once the Metro is built it is going to be here to serve generations to come. We need to build it while it will be cheaper to construct. Its not a matter of if Loudoun needs rail it's a matter of when. The time is now, I for one hope the vote.......
Yes to Metro
Burt Rosenberg
1:02 am on Thursday, May 24, 2012
Melvin, I'm with you that rail is good, but consider the air pollution that will come if they insist on paying for it though the planned absurd Toll Road increases. Just imagine the thousands of cars fleeing the crazy-high tolls, sitting in gridlock, putting out exhaust fumes, on the already-crowded surface roads. They must find other ways to fund it. That's all I'm saying.
Bob Bruhns
7:07 am on Thursday, May 24, 2012
The mistake that the toll road people are making, is that their argument will simply be twisted into a justification for more borrowing and more taxes, for a rail line that is ridiculously premature.
Use your heads, people. Yes the tolls will go up, because Phase I was foisted on Fairfax County. You don't think that Phase II will make things worse? Didn't you learn arithmetic in school? Use your heads and look at the prices. $26,394 per space for parking garages, when they should cost $15,000 per space! $83 million per rail station, when they should cost $40 million! About $270 million per mile, when this line should cost MAYBE $150 million per mile! And no rail tax district around the rail station areas! Oh wait - THE BOS JUST THOUGHT ABOUT THAT TWO MONTHS BEFORE THE DECISION? Except THEY WERE DISCUSSING IT TWO YEARS AGO! WHO'S KIDDING WHO? Think about it - don't you think that people who will be pocketing incredible windfall profits would be urging you to approve this plan? JUST SAY NO!
This Phase II farce will bring you a couple of stations on the east end of your county that will only make things worse for you. Snap out of it and say NO!
CC Mojo
9:09 am on Thursday, May 24, 2012
Bob, do you even live in Loudoun? Just curious, since you seem to be running around, waving a banner about how horrible Phase II is, but saying "the east end of your county that will only make things worse for you."
Also, a head of cauliflower should only cost $1.50, but here, it's $4.00. I'd expect no less from a parking space, a ticket to the Spy Museum or a bottle of wine.
Bob Bruhns
11:13 am on Thursday, May 24, 2012
No CC, I live in Herndon, just over the eastern border from Loudoun County.
Well if you like expensive things, you'll love Dulles Rail. I guess if you like expensive produce, why not have expensive transit as well?
Despite several Metro lines on Fairfax County's east side, (3 lines, if you count the Orange line to Vienna, the Blue line to Springfield, and the Yellow line to Huntington), Loudoun County is still richer than Fairfax County. I guess you'll fix that with these rail stations?
CC Mojo
11:58 am on Thursday, May 24, 2012
Bob, I love how you try to twist words. But, why do you care so much about Phase II if you're not going to be affected, at least according to whatever else you've been saying?
Bob Bruhns
1:10 pm on Thursday, May 24, 2012
CC, for the benefit of people who do not even live in northern Virginia, I live in Herndon. Herndon is actually one of the rail station locations on Dulles Rail Phase II, aka Rail to Loudoun, aka Rail to Dulles, aka The Silver Line (Phase II).
How does it affect me? I live right here where traffic is about to take over my town's roads, because of drivers avoiding the ridiculous tolls that are coming to the Dulles Toll Road. Will those drivers be able to use the Silver Line? Probably not, coming from Maryland via Rt 15, and from Loudoun County, and probably headed to Vienna, Fox Mill, Fairfax, VA, etc. Maybe a few will park somewhere and take rail into Tysons Corner or DC.
I pay Town of Herndon property tax. And my town has to deal with the coming rail station just outside of our southern border. I'm sure it will all benefit the landowners down by the station, but I doubt that it will benefit me at all.
I also pay Fairfax County property tax. And when Fairfax County floats a Billion dollar bond to pay down the tolls, I get to help pay down the bond. Whoopee!!! No doubt this is the plan in Loudun County as well.
Bob Bruhns
1:36 pm on Thursday, May 24, 2012
By the way - FTA claimed, and MWAA did not protest, that parking garages cost $26,394 per space. But in very nearby downtown Herndon, VA, they cost $15,000 per space. Isn't this false inflation in Dulles Rail Phase II? Why are parking garages so much more expensive when MWAA and FTA cost them? I think we need to take the keys away from that bunch, and get Phase II costs under control.
CC Mojo
2:10 pm on Thursday, May 24, 2012
Bob, correct me if I'm wrong (and I have no doubt that you will) but you are okay with the Rail to Dulles part of the project, correct? Yet, that still affects your traffic.
And, again, why do you care what happens in Loudoun?
Bob Bruhns
3:01 pm on Thursday, May 24, 2012
CC, I am against this Phase II project whether it goes to Ashburn or only to Dulles Airport. I've seen enough and read enough to know that it is no good. The Phase II ripoff was originally sold to Fairfax County residents as 'Rail to Dulles', because "OH! Well, air travelers needed to get from DC to the International Airport!" Except later, when the insane MWAA below ground plan was going to cost so much money that even our so-called 'leaders' balked, we were told "OH, well actually, it's mostly for the Dulles Airport Employees - so, it's OK if it's a quarter mile from the air terminal." Hmmm. About then, I happened to notice that the FTA was on drugs or something, and they had bungled the price estimate for the Rt 28 rail station. And although I brought this to the attention of quite a few people, it was NEVER reported in the news. This was a $53 million error! So I began to question the figures. Ultimately, I came to the conclusion that the Dulles Airport rail plan is horrible, and that Dulles Rail Phase II costs almost two times what it should.
Bob Bruhns
3:13 pm on Thursday, May 24, 2012
Everything in Dulles Rail Phase II costs about 1.7 to 2 times what it should, and there is a near civil war raging about who is going to PAY these costs, yet NOBODY is interested in the FACT that the costs are high by 70% to 100%. In addition, rail in this low-population-density area is premature, so it will be a burden even if the price is brought down to earth. This will affect me, because I will be paying road tolls and taxes, and I will be paying higher prices because everyone else will be adversely affected by these overcosts as well, and the cars escaping the toll road will flood my town. Ultimately I am convinced that Fairfax and Loudoun Counties will float billion dollar bonds to pay for it, and I will of course be left paying that off. No, thanks!
I see the need for BUS - to reserve and establish the transit rights of way, and to provide interim transit for the next 30 years, until rail becomes a sensible option. Rail just isn't a sensible option now.
I believe that the billion dollars plus of excess charge is padding some important pockets around here, so we are having this overpriced ripoff of a rail line forced upon us thanks to our so-called 'leaders', who have not even thought about how to PAY for this mess! Most people can't study and fight like I study and fight, and the media feeds them disinformation, and hides inconvenient things like the $53 million FTA blunder and the 70% to 100% project overcost. And so, people are confused and deceived.
Bob Bruhns
3:17 pm on Thursday, May 24, 2012
I am opposed to the rail even just to the airport because our 'leaders' already admitted that it is not even for air travelers! I prefer BUS. I also want a total redesign of the Dulles Airport rail station and track as a mostly on-ground 'dead-end spur', rather than a big expensive 3-mile elevated track loop, with an expensive elevated station 1/4 mile from the air terminal. (Ridiculous!) Maybe if Loudoun County gets smart and says NO, the job will go back to the drawing board, and MWAA will be pushed out of the process, so it MIGHT get done right!
Victoria Glenn
7:36 pm on Thursday, May 24, 2012
Wait..so you don't even live in Loudoun, and yet are so very very vocal about what happens here. You don't live here yet seem to have all the answers as to what needs to be done here. Interesting.
Many of us who DO live here want the RAIL, we need the RAIL. The area is growing and the RAIL will bring needed transportation now, not as an afterthought. It will attract the best businesses and thus provide much needed jobs as well as a way to get to them.
Bob Bruhns
10:30 pm on Thursday, May 24, 2012
Victoria, how do I know that YOU live in Loudoun County? Some people who claim to live here have a strangely distorted idea of the actual geography of Fairfax and Loudoun Counties, and obviously are not from here.
Who told you that rail was the solution to everything? It hasn't solved much in Fairfax County - Loudoun County was richer than Fairfax County -without- rail! But don't worry, we're rich enough with rail, and you will be too. You'll just have to do without a few things, and you can ride a train! You can fume about your taxes as you ride to work. Try not to remember how you actually supported the double priced rail line, or how you didn't want to hear facts from that awful BOB from Herndon. Just pay the bills, and don't even THINK about that job in Fair Oaks. Enjoy!
Victoria Glenn
10:12 pm on Friday, May 25, 2012
oh bob I never said you were awful....annoying at times, but not awful. You also know nothing about me about my life or my struggles to keep my family of 5 running. We may live in one of the richest counties in the US but not all of us have it easy and make ends meet with no issues and enjoy our commute to work in our BMW. Some of us have spouses who work ridiculous hours as it is, then add to that the hours spent commuting in gridlock, the stress that goes along with that and feeling like all you do is work and commute and not have time to spend with your kids or wife. Yes i have high hopes that being able to take the rail from a station closer to home will ease my husbands stress, shorten his commute, give us more time together as a family and have that time be more pleasant because of reduced stress. We could potentially get rid of one car, reducing our expenses some if i can drop him off and pick him up at the station, or he can carpool with a neighbor. once the kids are all at school, the rail will provide more job opportunities for me as I reenter the workforce. Do I know for a fact that this is how it will be..no. But I am very hopeful that the rail will indeed improve the quality of life for my family and I. I am certain also that I am not alone in this...most of my neighbors feel the same way.
We need the rail for many reasons, these are just my personal ones.
Michael
11:44 am on Thursday, May 24, 2012
Huntington is most definitely NOT on the 'east side' of Fairfax County. For that matter, neither is Springfield.
Loudoun is richer for a variety of factors, mostly having to do with the relative age of the developments. It's oversimplistic to blame rail for that. You have to consider the (non-rail-accessible) areas around Bailey's Crossroads, Annandale, and the Mt. Vernon corridor, with their older development and smaller houses which attract a different income level.
Bob Bruhns
3:21 pm on Thursday, May 24, 2012
Michael, do you even live in Northern Virginia? Take a look.
http://www.en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Huntington,_Virginia
"Huntington is a census-designated place (CDP) in Fairfax County, Virginia, United States."
http://www.en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Springfield,_VA
"Springfield is a census-designated place in Fairfax County, Virginia, United States"
And I guess I'd better include Vienna, since it seems some people don't even live anywhere near Northern Virginia.
http://www.homesviennavirginia.com/town-of-vienna-va-in-fairfax-county-va/
"About Vienna VA. Vienna VA is located in Fairfax County VA just 16 miles from Washington DC."
Oh, and here is the WMATA Metro map. Funny, those stations look to be on the east side of Fairfax County to me. Well, Springfield and Huntington are a bit to the southeast. Close enough!
http://www.wmata.com/rail/maps/map.cfm
Bob Bruhns
3:27 pm on Thursday, May 24, 2012
You know, Fairfax County had all that rail and all that proximity to the juicy, high paying jobs in DC, but yet Loudoun County is richer. Why don't you want to keep things that way? But no, you are falling for overpriced rail, when what you need is BUS - until rail becomes practical. You need to snap out of it, and start using your HEADS!
RKO
2:46 pm on Thursday, May 24, 2012
As a note for any readers, special interests have long had a history of getting on local web sites and mailing lists and having their marketing people saturate them with what amounts to propaganda. Whereas most people have to go to work, this **is** their work. i.e. if they're working for a developer and the developer has a lot to gain monetarily, their assignment might (literally) be to get on sites like this and saturate it with every possible angle supporting their claims.
No one with an ounce of sense thinks metro is going to be the "miracle baby" that will magically transform various areas into "boom" areas, so when you read posts on sites like this claiming this will undoubtedly happen and this is a fact, it's likely a developers marketing agent getting on here and pretending to be a concerned citizen. Usually a concerned citizen that just happens to love development.
10 years ago one of the "selling" points of rail was that if the developers put it in and then turned Reston into an ultra high density area with 2X to 3X the population, the income of the area would **sky rocket** and their would be less traffic on the road because of rail. Some county supervisors actually believed this (or perhaps, were paid to believe).
As another poster on here frequently points out, Reston has lots of unused space, traffic is worse, and it will get worse with rail. Read many of the pro-rail posts with a very, very, suspicious eye.
Michael
6:18 pm on Thursday, May 24, 2012
Bob, can you even read?
Yes, I do live in northern VA - in Herndon, in fact. I never said those places aren't in Fairfax - I said they're not in the "east side" of the county. The "east side" of the county is Annandale/Falls Church/etc. Huntington is south, and Fairfax is West. I know my local geography well enough to know what I'm talking about. Nobody in those areas would consider themselves in the "eastern" part of the county - I work with many of them, and I could perhaps take a poll if you don't believe me.
In any case, whether bus is a good idea or not depends on what you want out of it. You could at least set an example of mature adulthood yourself by adopting a different tone and taking the name-calling out of this. One can only assume that you personally have something at stake here, from the vitriolic nature of most of your comments. You don't even live in Loudoun but presume to tell their board what to do. And you claim here, as you have in other discussions, that everyone who disagrees with you is puerile, immature, idiotic, or in some other way beneath your station. You rail opponents spend too much time shouting.
My mother always taught me that when people shout, they're trying to cover up the fact that they have nothing meaningful to say. If your arguments are that strong, try presenting them logically and leave the hate out of it.
Bob Bruhns
6:56 pm on Thursday, May 24, 2012
Actually, Michael, Fairfax is more central. Centreville is west. I have to look at a map to see what is the furthest west.
The point of the Metro stations being on the east side of Fairfax County (which is not surprising, because they come from DC), whether they might be on the northeast or the southeast, is that the situation for Fairfax County now, is similar to the future situation for Loudoun County - if you want to get from, say, Herndon, to a Metro station, you have to drive, take a bus, or ride a bicycle, or something, to get to and from there - much like the situation will be in Loudoun County, with Metro extending only as far as Ashburn. Now, some economist is saying that a few Metro stations on the east side of Loudoun County will cause money to gush out of office buildings and paychecks all over Loudoun County, but why didn't that happen in Fairfax County? Why was Loudoun County, with NO Metro at all, richer than Fairfax County, after Fairfax County - for YEARS - has had so much more Metro than Loudoun County will have? Why was there little business development, for example, at the Vienna station? Has anybody asked the economist why he wasn't pushing for a high-density business center at the Vienna station?
The experience of Fairfax County says that a couple of Metro stations on the east side of Loudoun County aren't going to make Loudoun County rich - actually, it seems to me that the evidence actually suggests that it will make Loudoun County poorer.
Bob Bruhns
6:56 pm on Thursday, May 24, 2012
http://www.fairfaxcountyeda.org/sites/default/files/pdf/fairfax_county_map.pdf
Michael
6:30 pm on Thursday, May 24, 2012
BTW I don't work for a developer, don't have any connection to developers, don't get any of their money, and wouldn't need metro to get to work (I have a 2 mile drive as it is). But I still think it's a good idea. I used my own brain and my own research to arrive at this conclusion.
Michael
6:43 pm on Thursday, May 24, 2012
One piece of evidence I used is actually population density. WMATA is recognized as a hybrid rail/subway system, so you can't just use straight subway densities in justifying locations, you need to blend them with commuter rail standards in the outlying areas. Ashburn as a whole already has enough density to support basic commuter rail by standard US definitions: the 20147 zip code has a density over 3300/sq mi.
Given the empty space in this zip code, this means the neighborhoods near the stations are already considerably higher than that. When you say there isn't sufficient density, its probably because you're not looking at the map with a high enough resolution, so to speak. If you focus on too broad an area that will tend to happen. Look at the data by census block or census tract, rather than the entire CDP, and you'll get a more accurate idea. The density of some neighborhoods in Ashburn is already close enough to the level needed.
Bob Bruhns
7:05 pm on Thursday, May 24, 2012
Are you really going to go looking for concentrated neighborhoods and run a rail line to them, Michael? Why not start with a dedicated BUS line? When you get to the point where the transit route is established, then go to rail.
If Dulles Rail is going to ratchet its cost up to the neighborhood of $260 million per mile, until it has to shed its components and dump them onto the counties to hide its real cost (such as was done with the Rt 28 rail station and the Phase II parking garages), then I think the more stringent rules should be applied for population density. Maybe you should push to get its cost down to earth?
Rail to Loudoun is a solution in search of its proper application - which eastern Loudoun County is not. But you make a good point for a rail tax district around the stations - which was conveniently forgotten, wasn't it.
CC Mojo
10:25 pm on Thursday, May 24, 2012
I don't know, Bob, but it seems between your location and loud, insulting voice, you're losing any sort of credibility around here. Will you be speaking at the meeting on June 4th? I'd love to see you in action ;)
Bob Bruhns
10:48 pm on Thursday, May 24, 2012
Well, I'm very good at dropping my notes when I stand at the podium, CC. I might bonk my head when I straighten up after picking them up, too. It's important credibility stuff. You'd be amused.