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LTE: Loudoun Should Bail on Rail

An opponent of bringing the rail project to Ashburn raises concerns about the long-term economic impact to the county.

To the Editor:

In just a few weeks our Loudoun Board of Supervisors will decide on the largest financial transaction in the county’s history. The annual expenditure will be the second-largest budget item after schools.

Supervisor Janet Clarke (R-Blue Ridge) has circulated an online survey soliciting constituent input on the Dulles Rail project. I believe her intentions are good, but I ask her, and all the other supervisors, to educate the public with a series of thorough presentations sharing both sides of the rail issue.

Many in our county have spent countless hours looking for answers to the basic questions about Rail to Loudoun, and have found substantial reason to conclude three things:

  1. The construction cost to build this is enormous, currently estimated at $350 million (roughly the cost of 7 new schools}. With interest the total cost will be $750 million (the cost of 15 new schools).
  2. The mandatory contribution to Metro would be astronomical, but the actual amount is being concealed. The best estimate is a $100 million/year subsidy to Metro, FOREVER.
  3. The economic benefit of this project is dubious at best, with a reputable study predicting this will be a perpetual loser. Their best estimate is $8 million/year in income against a $20 million/year 30-year mortgage payment for building the line, plus the $100 million/year Metro subsidy. In simple math that is a $112 million annual loss.

With that said, polling people on their Rail opinions before educating them on such a weighty decision is not responsible leadership. The good news is that Loudoun can opt out if they choose to and the rail will go to Dulles anyway.

Janet is a dedicated public servant and I hope she and the rest of our supervisors will prove themselves in the years to come.

The key to a good decision is good information, and then putting that good information to use. Henry Ford said, “Thinking is the hardest work there is, which is probably the reason why so few engage in it.” Let’s help our board think this through.

Sincerely,
Jon Garber Sr.

Joe Homeowner February 27, 2012 at 01:20 pm
Amazing if they don't go to Dulles. All those folks who bought and are buying the home depot being told they are going to have a metro stop in their backyard.
Annie February 27, 2012 at 01:22 pm
Bailing on the rail would be flat out irresponsible of Loudoun at this point in time. The county committed years ago, businesses and residents are counting on the Metro to be out in our area sooner rather than later and developers are building entire communities around Loudoun stops! The developers alone could bury Loudoun in litigation that could take years and millions upon millions of dollars to settle a dispute if the county doesn't follow through on it's promises at this point in time!
Chris February 27, 2012 at 04:14 pm
Exactly. I find it frustrating that we committed to this, and now all of this opposition is coming out of the woodwork at the very last minute. As far as I'm concerned, the boat has sailed. Rail to Loudoun needs to happen. I find that the vast majority of the opposition to be based on the assumption that there couldn't possibly be an economic benefits to the region by Metro coming here. As in the LTE above, "The economic benefit of this project is dubious at best, with a reputable study predicting this will be a perpetual loser." What is this "reputable study" of which you speak?
Additionally, why are we judging rail on a different criteria that roads? Every road we build in this county has a -100% ROI. Unless we put toll booths on all of them, they are all guaranteed to be perpetual losers. Does that mean we should stop building roads? Why are we judging rail differently? At least Metro will generate revenue to offset some of the costs. Lastly, if you looks at the undeveloped land directly around the station locations, I believe the county has put us in a fantastic position for commercial development to thrive. Often times, stations go in in locations where the majority of the surrounding land has already been built on. We have many large empty tracts that would be ideal places for class A office space, giving us a far better chance of luring large employers (and the tax dollars they bring) to our county.
Jonathan Erickson February 27, 2012 at 05:31 pm
The population does not support this kind of expenditure for rail Look at the density. This is someones idea of civic pride. If it's such a good deal and will bring in all of the business you say it will pass the cost onto them not the taxpayer.
Chris February 27, 2012 at 05:52 pm
By the time phase II is scheduled to be completed (2016, probably more likely 2017), we'll be around 13 years away from a 450,000 person population. And that is based on rapidly declining growth compared to this past decade. I suppose you think we have plenty of room on Waxpool and Rt 7 for those additional 150,000 people? With gas already around $4/gallon again, I suppose you'll be fine with no alternatives to driving if it ends up going up to $8/gallon as many predictions are fearing? We might as well just doom all the development around the future stations to failure before they've even had a chance to succeed. This has nothing to do with civic pride.
Jonathan Erickson February 27, 2012 at 05:54 pm
Thanks and yes!
Bob Bruhns February 27, 2012 at 07:10 pm
If people want to approve this rail project, they need to look at the excessive costs in it. I am talking about two to one overcost!
People need to force their 'leaders' to get those costs under control. Our leaders, the MWAA and certainly the FTA ought to know this - but they are certainly not acting appropriately. Dulles Rail Phase II is about five times the size of the Franconia-Springfield Metro extension, but it costs more than ten times as much, allowing for inflation since 1997. That means the individual costs are easily two times what they should be, or more. There is no justification for this overcost. The Dulles Rail Phase II Rt 28 station cost, the only station cost visible to the pubic (thanks to the FTA review in 2011), is almost two times the cost of a comparable Metro station built in posh Fairfield, Connecticut in 2011. There is no justification for this overcost. All five Dulles Rail Phase II parking garages are listed at easily 70% more than they should cost, compared to other similar garages in the USA. There is no justification for this overcost. The Dulles Rail road toll plan is defective. Sharon Bulova, Chair of the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors, acknowledges this. Stop the madness! Make your 'leaders' review Dulles Rail Phase II costs, before you get signed up for double-priced rail!
VS February 27, 2012 at 07:37 pm
I too as a recent homeowner in Ashburn feel perplexed about Loudoun county even thinking of backing away from the metro. As Annie mentioned in the comment one of the big selling points we were told was that the Metro is going to come to Ashburn in 2016. Well, some rail opponent is going to say "It was never guaranteed". You might be legally right but you would be morally wrong and it would be false advertisement. (With the new home constructions near proposed stations, there is no ambiguity with the developer/realtor references to the property being close to metro, for example "Loudoun station drive" is one of the street names near Ashburn Homedepot.). If Loudoun county feels there are some bloated costs with this project, they should find other ways to rectify it rather than trying to kill a mass transit system. Building more roads would never solve the horrible traffic issues in Loudoun, having better public transportation should be the way to go.
Chris February 28, 2012 at 12:56 am
We have also been in Ashburn the past few years. We were under the impression that Metro in 2016 (assuming completion on time) was a done deal here. It was, and still is, a large appeal to living in the location. It's still odd to me that all of this anti-rail sentiment is coming out now at the last minute.
I agree that finding ways to control costs is the way to go. I don't understand why many of the anti-rail folks immediately call for the BOS to opt-out entirely. Shouldn't we be calling on them to find more ways to save tax payers money instead of leaping to the most extreme option of opting-out altogether? The last I had heard, it sounds as if private companies are interested in building the parking garages, meaning it won't require taxpayer money. Those are the types of solutions we should be working toward. Not killing the entire thing.
David A. LaRock February 28, 2012 at 03:58 am
this project is a mega-scam. If you think you are entitled to this, compiments of the rest of the county, then that is between you and whoever lied to you about it being a done deal.
Read this and you will know what you need to know. Urban Transit by Randal O'Toole http://www.downsizinggovernment.org/transportation/urban-transit
Chris February 28, 2012 at 04:03 am
"Many detractors have noted O'Toole's selective use of information, undocumented statistics, and unverifiable sources of information in order to support his claims against rail transit. O'Toole has been criticized for declaring that roadways pay for themselves and are the best use of public funds, even though highways are some of the most expensive public works projects."
No thanks. Compliments of the rest of the county? Last I checked, I pay taxes here too. Seems I have just as much a right as you to voice my opinion on how they should be spent.
David A. LaRock February 28, 2012 at 05:16 am
Many detractors, ooops, you forgot to name them. O'Toole's cited article has 2-3 pages of footnotes Chris, and he uses his full name so we know he is real. How about you Chris? Are you real? Where do you pay your taxes?
David A. LaRock February 28, 2012 at 12:48 pm
Was it the home builder that told you rail is coming. If yes they may be setting an expectation that promotes a sale but misleads the buyer. What they should be telling you is that if/when these super-dense developments get going, your peaceful neighborhodds, roads, schools will never be the same. Rail is not bad. But the density that will come IF rail comes is bad.
Good people of Brambleton, you are being decieved. Buses can do a far better job for a fraction of the cost. Bus transit allows you to live and work as you do now. It expands as your community expands. But it gets overlooked because it does not facilitate the cash flow to developers and politicians. Please read this (below) and ask yourselves if you really need that Metro ball and chain...because that ball has a fuse on it. “Recapturing Global Leadership in Bus Rapid Transit, A Survey of Select U.S. Cities by Annie Weinstock, Walter Hook, Michael Replogle, and Ramon CruzMay 2011 http://www.itdp.org/documents/20110526ITDP_USBRT_Report-LR.pdf
Chris February 28, 2012 at 12:50 pm
Since you love footnotes so much, there are nearly 3 pages here debunking nearly ever criticism O'Toole has raised about mass transit in Portland :
http://www.cnu.org/sites/www.cnu.org/files/DebunkingCato.pdf You got me. I'm not real. I'm just a phantom. My hobbies include caring about projects in counties where I don't live, and lying about where I pay taxes. (sarcasm off)
Chris February 28, 2012 at 12:58 pm
Many of us do not view increased density as bad. Increased density brings many good things to a community. Clearly you are from the western part of the county and have a vested interest in seeing this project not happen since it may not provide much benefit to you. Those of us in the eastern half stand to benefit far more. Ultimately the BOS's opinion is what matters.
David A. LaRock February 28, 2012 at 01:08 pm
Chris, Interesting piece from "The Congress for New Urbanism" . The problem is not rail or Urbanism. The problem is that to fund these suposedly "sustainable" goals, you need an endless supply of OPM (other peoples money) and in this case some of that money is mine and my friends. If it's so great, why do riders only pay 43% of daily overhead and expect others to pay for the rest?
If it is so "sustainable" why is Metro in the hole for $13 BILLION in delayed maintenance. In my world you skip over the stuff that bleeds money, and you rally against things that redistribute wealth away from things that work to prop up losers like Metrorail.
Chris February 28, 2012 at 01:25 pm
Two comments:
1) First, I'm not sure why we keep holding rail to a different standard that roads. Unless we put up tolls on every road in the county, they're technically all -100% ROI projects. The fact that Metro can support 43% of its daily operating overhead is more than I can say for any road that we've built. The same applies to schools. Does that mean we should stop building roads and schools? 2) In regard to OPM, again, does that mean I should oppose the building of any roads and schools in the county that are outside of my neighborhood? I've probably been on just a small percentage of the roads in the western part of the county, so I could argue that any new road there provides no benefit to me yet that me and my friends have to pay for them. New schools built outside of my neighborhood's district provide no benefit to me either. Should I oppose the new school being built in Lansdowne? That's part of living in a community. I'd be interested in knowing what percentage of the county's tax base comes from Ashburn, Sterling, and Leesburg (to a lesser extend) since these are the areas that will benefit most. The same could be said of my state taxes. Northern Virginia disproportionately funds projects in other portions of the state. We get back less than we put in. Should I oppose anything built in Richmond or the Hampton Roads area because it's being built with OPM?
David A. LaRock February 28, 2012 at 01:55 pm
Chris, you are now asking good questions but I cannot spend so much time meeting like this. Contact me at www.LoudounOpt Out.com and I'll help you find the answers you are looking for.
loudounguy February 28, 2012 at 03:31 pm
Could you please tell me where this figure of 450 million in interest costs is coming from? Based on current rates the county is paying and a 20 to 30 year typical repay, That seems to be way out of line. I believe the County currently gets rates around 3% so total intrest should be around half of the given number. Am I missing something? Also, where is the $100 million a year in operating costs (Loudoun's share) coming from? The County budget documents put that number at around 8 Million.
Carla February 28, 2012 at 04:21 pm
One major "con" about the rail. . . it will bring the CRIMINAL ELEMENT out of Washington DC right to our doorstep. Many from Washington DC (where guns laws are restricted) will simply take the rail here to purchase what they want. Prepare for crime to go up when the rail is finished. This will also be an opportune means for criminals (with denied licenses, etc) to find themselves with transportation by rail to this rich county. Oh yes, Loudoun is the richest county in the state of Virginia, and the criminal element are well aware of that.
Bob Bruhns March 13, 2012 at 04:43 am
The first thing Fairfax County did - in late 2009! - was establish a rail tax district for Dulles Rail Phase II. But somehow this has been conveniently forgotten in Loudoun County. I wonder why that might be. It was discussed almost two years ago... and then... nothing. What does the Loudoun County BOS have to say about this? What does the Loudoun County Chamber of Commerce have to say about this? After almost two years, something should have been resolved. No?
Everybody is supposed to rush headong into this expensive rail deal - and no rail tax district agreement has been considered?

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Jim June 18, 2013 at 11:22 am
Doug was a coach in Dulles Little League for many years and the entire DLL community sends itsRead More thoughts and prayers to Barbara, Chris and all of Doug's family and friends. Thank you, Payne family, for sharing Doug with us. May he rest in peace.