Fuller Calls Metro Loudoun's Fork in the Road

A man considered by many leaders in the region to be an expert on land use patterns and their economic impacts — and by some to be a developer shill — released a study that Monday that has supporters of the Dulles Corridor Metrorail Project salivating and opponents scathing.

According to the report, without rail, Loudoun would forego $263.6 billion in gross county product (GCP) from 2020-2040, with $25.6 billion of it foregone in 2040 alone.

According to the study by Stephen S. Fuller, the director of the Center for Regional Analysis at George Mason University, Loudoun’s decision whether to participate in Metro’s Silver Line project has two vastly different potential outcomes: one of a wholly suburban county with the type of commercial development required to support it; and another of a county with high-end commercial investors that consolidate development around Metro’s nodes.

Fuller said the rail decision presents a “fork in the road” for Loudoun

“It’s a totally different economic future,” he said during an interview Monday, “whether it’s a suburban economy or an economy built around employment centers whose markets aren’t local. The consequences of either/or is really significant and I don’t think it’s being put out there. The magnitude of this is really enormous."

And, like supporters of the project, Fuller said it’s not something that can be set aside temporarily.

“You can’t pick it up in 10 years. There’s a window of opportunity. The development patterns for the development around Metro will establish in the next 10 years or so,” he said, adding that if Loudoun opts out, “the deed is done. I think the message goes out right away: ‘We’re not intent on this investment.’”

The essential difference, according to Fuller, is that one development pattern relegates Loudoun to a bedroom community indefinitely reliant upon residential real estates taxes and eastern localities for jobs, while the other creates the opportunity for Loudoun to lure large businesses and boost economic development.

Opponents aren’t buying it and quickly charged hard against the study in comments on local news sites and blogs.

Fuller said he’s used to the criticism.

“I get accused of being in the developers. I also get accused of being in the pockets of unions,” he said. “It’s a typical way for someone to discard a position that doesn’t jibe with theirs.”

Fuller said he was not paid as a consultant to perform the study, but agreed to do it in exchange for a contribution to the Center for Regional Analysis by the group, which includes landowners around the Metro line. Fuller said he has done some consulting work, but not for rail.

“I’m going to do what I want to do and you can see if you like the answer,” he said.

When asked, the full-time GMU faculty member said he does not have a financial interest in or work as a consultant for Metro line property owners.

 “It’s a legitimate question,” he said, regarding funding. “It’s easy to be corrupted by someone who pays you. You’re always going to be tainted by whoever funds it.”

But Fuller said he tries to use the contribution method to minimize such accusations. Theoretically, any funder would get the same study.

“It doesn’t matter who paid for it,” he said. “The answer’s the same.”

Much of the debate about the project has focused on how many passengers Metro would move and whether buses could move those people cheaper. Some may consider the cheapest option to be the most fiscally responsible. Many members of the business community, however, feel quite differently, viewing the project as an investment that will pay significant economic development dividends in the long run.

Wednesday morning, members of the Loudoun Chamber of Commerce will gather to hear speakers discuss the economic benefits the project would provide the county. The panel includes Fuller, Virginia’s Secretary of Transportation Sean Connaughton and Washington Dulles Airport Manager Chris Browne.

A Robert Charles Lesser & Co. report often touted by both sides in the rail debate shows that a primary change Metro would create is the consolidation of commercial development from other areas of the county, particularly the Route 7 corridor, to the rail stations. The county, overall, would generate just 7 percent more development, but it would move from other parts of the county to the rail stations.

Fuller said that’s where the benefit lies. Without rail, he said, the county loses its ability to compete with other jurisdictions for the companies coming to the region. With rail, he said, Loudoun would be the place to go, capturing a larger share of business investment in the region.

“There’s a shift going on. Federal spending won’t dry up, but it won’t grow as in the past,” he said. “Fairfax and Loudoun are positioned to be the locations for businesses that want to be located around the nation’s capital.”

Rail would draw Fortune 500 companies that chose western Fairfax or eastern Loudoun “because it’s the best place to live,” he said.

In addition, the land around Loudoun’s proposed rail stations are mostly undeveloped, much different than in Fairfax.

“Fairfax won’t compare to Loudoun. Fairfax stations just aren’t going to work the same way,” he said. “Nobody’s going to be able to compete with Loudoun.”

“It won’t happen without rail,” Fuller said, “Loudoun will be competitive, but not with large investors. Most of this stuff will leak over to Fairfax at the expense of Loudoun. The offices that will be built won’t be Class A offices.”

The Lesser report also shows an anticipated level of tax revenue that does not cover the costs of rail, some of which remain unknown. The group Loudoun Opt Out analyzed the numbers and has been vocal against the project.

That and other reports about items such as projected ridership on Metro will be part of future discussions by the Loudoun Board of Supervisors. The board has not yet weighed all of its funding options, which could include a tax district or some other mechanism where those experiencing the greatest benefit would also pay a larger share for the project.

Fuller said some past studies presumed companies would come to Loudoun because rail was planned, making some job estimates inaccurate. In addition, he said the types of companies and jobs would be of a higher quality and pay more than the types of jobs the county would get without Metro. The real payoff, he said, comes when companies that provide products or services nationally locate in Loudoun; that drives up the GCP because the of the companies’ larger markets.

In addition, the types of jobs produced—professional and business services—generate much great GCP on average than every other job type with the exception of financial services.

As for buses, “I don’t think they’re interchangeable,” Fuller said. “It will be cheaper. The question is, will it serve the same purpose? Bus service won’t get hundreds of millions of dollars in investment around the stations.”

In addition, rail supporters point out that the types of heavy-use bus services discussed during the initial BRT consideration required dedicated lanes that are no longer available because of the rail project.