Metro Costs, Benefits Central to Loudoun Decision

The clock is ticking now as the Loudoun Board of Supervisors approach the last exit on the road to bringing rail to Dulles Airport and beyond to Loudoun. A board barely six months into its term will be tasked with making its first and the county’s last decision about whether to participate in what supporters call a potentially huge boon and opponents call a potentially huge boondoggle.

This past week, all of the partners involved in the construction and future operation of the new line received the final preliminary engineering information and an updated cost estimate: $2.7 billion. And while some may point out that it’s lower than the $3.83 billion previous estimate, the number does not reflect several items integral to the project, such as parking decks that Loudoun and Fairfax counties are trying to fund now, and the Route 28 station, which Fairfax must fund. If the counties cannot fund those items, they go back into the cost of the total project and the partners pay their respective shares for them.

The disclosure of the preliminary engineering and the cost update marked the beginning of the 90-day window during which partners may withdraw from the second phase of the project—for Loudoun that would mean withdrawing from the entire project.

With so many past decisions made by the county regarding the project, during a work session this past week, Broad Run Supervisor Shawn Williams (R) said what’s likely on the minds of many project supporters: “I think most of my constituents think this has been a done deal. I hope we get it right.”

But it’s not a done deal. The current board—comprised of nine Republicans elected for their campaigns on prudent budgeting, low taxes and attracting new business—gets a single vote in which in could remove Loudoun as a partner. Even that, according to county staff, does not mean the remaining partners would necessarily stop the rail line at Wiehle Avenue in Reston or at Dulles Airport; but it’s a distinct possibility. Supervisor Ralph Buona (R-Ashburn) expressed concerns that if the Silver Line stops short of Ashburn, Loudoun may never be part of Metro.

“If we don’t end it all the way out, we’re no going to see it in the next century,” he said, doubting those who say the last station can be added later. “I don’t buy that.”

After Williams called the board’s pending vote whether to participate in rail “probably the biggest decision this board will be making,” Buona took that sentiment a step further. “This isn’t the biggest decision this board is going to make. This is the biggest decision in 70 years in Loudoun County. This the biggest decision in a generation or even a century in Loudoun County,” Buona said.

But other supervisors were skeptical, including Eugene Delgaudio (R-Sterling) who called the notion of huge tax revenue benefits decades away a “pie in the sky concept.” He has long questioned the rationale for rail, the type of development that comes with it and who would actually benefit.

“Who’s going to ride this thing, by ZIP code?” he asked. “We’re going to have a lot of people coming from out of town to Loudoun getting on this thing.”

Supervisor Janet Clarke (R-Blue Ridge) said, for her constituents in western Loudoun, “it would not be feasible for them to take Metro.” She also wondered what types traffic headaches rail construction would cause, pointing to the project’s disruption of Tysons Corner.

County Chairman Scott K. York (R-At Large) said Tysons is different because of utility relocation issues, particularly those involving secured government line. In addition, he said, rail was built down the middle of existing Route 7. Most of the route in Loudoun is in the undeveloped median of the Dulles Toll Road and the Dulles Greenway.

“I look forward to the conversation. We have no more area for road capacity east to west. For me, this is about adding capacity to the growth we’re anticipating in this corridor. You think right now Route 7, the Greenway, Route 50 and the Toll Road are bad, let us not put rail in,” York said. “Let us not take advantage of having Dulles Airport in our backyard.”

York also said, to those fearing Ballston-type development, that the county zoning ordinance does not allow buildings as high as Arlington County.

Buona told Delgaudio that he hears from constituents regularly who would ride Metro.

“They share with me their horror stories about commuting to DC every day,” Buona said. “That’s who’s going to ride this.”

Supervisor Matt Letourneau (R-Dulles) said some businesses have expressed concerns about getting employees to Loudoun, which could be a problem with respect to luring new business to the county.

“This is certainly a component to consider,” he said.

Among the primary concerns for rail opponents and those eying the project with a fiscal mind, are the benefits to the county compared with the short-term and long-term costs.

The short-term costs—essentially the capital costs—are clearer now with the new estimate. The county’s share was reduced from about $315 million to about $262 million. Part of the reductions included the three parking decks Loudoun must now build, estimated to cost up to $135 million. The county hopes a private partner will pick up most, if not all of those costs; but if it doesn’t those costs will be rolled back into the project with Loudoun paying its 4.8 percent share.

The long-term costs remain less certain for operation and maintenance of the system (estimated at $20-30 million) as well as peripheral costs, such as bus service and adequate road infrastructure to get riders to stations. The county must factor in the cost to supplement its riders because Metro caps its fares and trips longer than six miles are subsidized by the jurisdictions. County staff opposes contributing to the Metro’s regional bus service because the service will not be expanded to Loudoun.

Participation in the project puts Loudoun on the hook for part of Phase 1. Those costs are included with the Phase 2 construction estimate.

The county staff will work during the next month or so to provide supervisors with the information they need to make a decision, including questions board members raise about the project.

Ben Mays, the county’s chief financial officer, said the benefits would take time, but over the course of two or three decades would grow significantly. Part of the benefit would be to draw commercial growth that might otherwise occur outside the county.

“The issue is, those effects take time,” Mays said, pointing out that the development of areas like Reston and Ballston two 20-30 years. However, he said, “significant net fiscal impact does occur in the out years” as a result of such growth related to rail.

Mays’ statements were based on two sets of fiscal analyses, on of which the county commissioned by Charles Lesser Co. Over the long-term, the county should expect to see significant benefits in terms of increased revenue coupled with development that has lower service demands.

In terms of initial costs to county, on the construction side, politicians are beginning to thrown hints around that they will fight for more state money, other than from Dulles Toll Road tolls, as well as federal funding. Federal money would potentially lower costs to the partners, while both sources would likely help keep Toll Road fares, which currently are earmarked to pay for the state’s share, low. A recent CD Smith study released by the Reston Association estimates that tolls may rise as high as $6.75 by 2020 and $10.75 by 2030 to meet revenue needs for the project. That’s in addition to tolls on the private Dulles Greenway, which are currently $4.80 each way at rush hour.

U.S. Senate candidate Tim Kaine, a Democrat, recently told a group of business leaders in Loudoun that he’d be happy to fight for federal funding for the project, although, he wasn’t promising any large numbers. George Allen, a Republican running for the same Senate seat as Kaine said he wouldn’t rule out federal funding, but that he also had concerns about the Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority’s, the entity constructing the project, pushing for union labor.

Virginia state Sens. Mark Herring (D-33) and Janet Howell (D-32) recently called on Gov. Bob McDonnell (R) to increase Virginia's contribution from $150 million to $500 million. That amount, they said in a statement, might help leverage additional federal funding.

In addition, the county could consider establishing a tax district, as was done in Fairfax County, in which businesses pay an additional tax to help pay for rail; or a commercial and industrial tax. Questions remained about whether both such taxes could be applied to operations and maintenance or just construction of the rail project.

With the number of concerns raised by supervisors and the information about the impacts being driven on local blogs, Buona said, “I’d ask my colleagues to keep an open mind. Don’t look at the umbers thrown around by blogs,” he said, urging board members to focus on information provided by professionals.

Those wishing to express their concerns to supervisors should make direct contact, as the board signaled this week that online polls and surveys, even administered by the county staff, are too open to manipulation. Supervisor Eugene Delgaudio (R-Sterling) promised to participate in that manipulation, given the opportunity. Those wishing to express their views may contact supervisors via direct communication, whether by a planned hearing, input sessions, phone calls, email and regular mail.

Dulles Silver Line-related websites:

• Dulles Corridor Metrorail Project
• Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority
• Loudoun County Metro Project page
• Loudoun Opt Out
• Loudoun Rail Now
• Save Virginia Jobs