So-So Turnout Expected for Virginia's Super Tuesday

As Virginia heads into , the mood is decidedly flat, likely due to the ballot : former Massachusetts Gov. and Texas Congressman .

"I expect a poor turnout. With no real competition, many voters will conclude, 'Why bother?'" said Mark J. Rozell, professor of Public Policy at  in Fairfax.

Anthony Bedell, chairman of the Fairfax County Republicans, agreed. "Turnout will be very low," he predicted.

Gov. Bob McDonnell, who has endorsed frontrunner Mitt Romney and , asked that voters turn out on Tuesday, in a conference call with reporters on Monday.

"We have two candidates—Ron Paul and our endorsed candidate Gov. Mitt Romney—and while it is one of 10 races that are being held across the country, we obviously think Virginia is a critically important state," McDonnell said. “It's said to be a swing state. It was a state that three, four years ago went for Obama and seven years ago went for President Bush so it certainly has the ability for both Democrats and Republicans to win. That's why most people think Virginia will be a very important state in November. We're asking our Republican activists and Independents who want to vote in the Republican primary, to go out and vote tomorrow."

Is McDonnell, who is oft-discussed as a potential running mate with Romney, serving up Virginia's delegates to Romney on a silver platter? University of Virginia Prof. Larry Sabato, in his "Crystal Ball" report, noted Virginia's leaders are Romney supporters and said that Romney will "sweep or nearly sweep" the state and is "guaranteed Virginia" and its 46 delegates up for grabs.

Because President George W. Bush (R) went unchallenged in 2004, the last comparable GOP presidential primary race to this year's was in 2000 when Vice President Al Gore went unchallenged for the Democrats. Five Republican candidates, including Bush and John McCain, battled for the GOP nomination.

That year, Virginia saw a 17.28 percent turnout. Participation that year was highest in Virginia's 8th Congressional District and lowest in the state's 9th Congressional District.

In Loudoun County in 2000, of 93,273 registered voters, 20,049 turned out in the GOP presidential primary, a 21 percent turnout. That’s a lower percentage than neighboring Fairfax County, where 126,234, or 23.2 percent, of the 544,157 registered voters turned out that year. Loudoun's population has since tripled.

In 2008, when there was both a Democratic and Republican primary, turnout was about 11 percent statewide, according to the Virginia State Board of Elections.

While Virginia has not received as much attention as other Super Tuesday states where all the GOP are on the ballot, that may change come November when Republicans hope to ride a recent wave of support against President Barack Obama. Obama won Virginia in 2008.

There’s no better example of Virginia’s shifting tide than Loudoun County, which supported Obama in 2008, but went heavy for Republicans in 2011. Currently, all nine members of the Loudoun Board of Supervisors, all constitutional officers and nine of eleven members of delegation to the Virginia Assembly are Republicans.

Patch editors Nicole Trifone, Dusty Smith and Jason Spencer contributed to this report.